Discussion on Economy, Finance, Money, Investments etc
- 6399
- 248
-
- Last Comment
Cycle is changing, finance/banking has peaked and will probably decline agriculture/mining/natural resources has bottomed out and will probably rise.
In ten years many investment banker types won’t have jobs and instead of driving BMW’s & Mercedes like they do today they will be driving Maruti’s and farmers instead of driving Maruti’s like they do today (well its already made a lot of gain so maybe they drive honda city’s today) will be driving Mercedes.
I already mentioned I’m totally bullish on agriculture/petroleum engineering/agro-biz/environmental engineering/mining and why as well as why I’m bearish on finance and why in many of my previous posts so won’t get into that.
today —→ http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-an…
Company is targeting 500% sales in just over next three years. I didn’t expect this to happen so soon though. Still in India farmers are not making as much profit as they should coz of govt policy. Lots of things to be worked out but in very short …..food prices have gone dramatically up, inventories are at lows in some cases historic lows, demand is going up higher and higher, water will soon be a precious resource etc etc
Its a no brainer.
In 1950’s farmers were wealthy most sought after branch at IIT was civil engineering, ISM Dhanbad was a reputed college, and bankers weren’t rich not many people even studied finance, well there’s a good chance of things going back to this kind of scenario.
Take the case of USA finance was booming it peaked with the 1929 crash and finance went into decline the farmers were the rich ones in 1930-1960 and finance took a backseat, then in 1970 with the great bull market in commodities and stocks and bonds finance came back into fashion and the farmers took a back seat.
I think yahoo or some site published an article about 5 most promising professions and 5 worst professions and agriculture was listed as one of the worst well they are totally wrong imho ….. I’m mentioning this in advance just in case anyone posts that article
I know this sounds totally ludicrous but for the dimers who keep posting about what they should do after college / job etc you should further research this.
tup, raj
we need an permanent chit chat thread for such topics, with both of u as founder member.
like yogesh, neo need a separate permanent thread for lighter topics.
ya we do need….no1 else intsted in such topics…
rajdesidime wrote:
firstly make it clear u r talking abt….mining,natural resources,agri bottoming out—-in what sence—-production,prices..??
I cnt c any of those…Or equity pricing.??
Also business line- RICH Farmers….who r rich farmers…hardly less than 5% farmers r rich….Forgt such pricy equipments…ystrdy Goyanka jii(of M&M)…gve stament that maharashtra drought reduced tractor sales by 25%…coz farmers hardly hav saving & loans r hard to comeby…
Also ruchir sharma wrote that prices of most agri commodities contrary to commom belief being vry high …Over a 100 yr is actully below inflation…
As u said indian farmer in vry bad condition….vry common reason APMC act…nw being ammended…still no near chance of improving….Reason—-farm size vry small which prevents investment,innovation thereby lower productivity…
In developed nations too farmers in poor shape…only thing they receive huge subsidies frm govt..& this is main contention of India wit them in DOHA round since 2003….NO WTO on agri nt atall moving..
Yes one thing which happen ovr abroad is good .nw farmers before deciding which crop to grow on thaeir fields follow future markets & gt in contract @earlier agreed prices…it provides them cushion against any untoward incidence…I c this happening in India too…
Wat u ha mentioned after 1930 depression is steep rise in comodities happend this time too in 2009-10…coz money moving out of equities into commodities….
I’m talking about more demand than supply, if this is the case the sector will do well, you can already see the effects of food prices have gone much higher in recent years, maybe your bai does your shopping for you, do one thing go to the grocery market, go to the baniya dukan and buy your self then you’ll see, see the prices of pulses, fruits, agro commodities, do one thing na go once a week and plot the prices in a graph on excel then you will surely see, Also even if you can’t see now wait few years then you’ll absolutely see.
You have to see by productive capacity, not number of farmers, for example one farmer may own lets say just for illustration sake 90 acres of land while while other 10 farmers will own 1 acre each. So with very little cultivable land/orchard whatever each of those ten farmers, will have very small profits in comparison to the one farmer who owns most of the land but even then the small farmer will have a high ROI but may not be classified as rich. Maybe i should correct myself, what I mean to say by “rich” was that it will be a booming sector with plenty of opportunities compared to other sectors.
Anyway reason farmers in India are not as profitable as they should be is not because sector is not growing its because of govt policy, for example few months ago at Vashi wholesale market Tomatos’s came in at Rs5/- per kg, when it reached local bhajiwalla’s in mumbai 9few kms away) it was priced at Rs20/- per kg. This is just one problem there are many others.
Well good you brought up Mr.Sharma and his book, even his basic facts which are easily available are wrong, just too many inaccuracies which is not acceptable, I stopped reading it. For example he writes in the beginning somewhere
“in 2002 google purchased orkut to compete with myspace and facebook” thats utter crap myspace and facebook didn’t even exist in 2002 …..how can a so called respected author make such a basic mistake. He’s wrong about thailand consumer stocks being sluggish, wrong on attributing the reasons of the recovery from the great depression to Hayek etc
I mean just his basic facts are wrong What little respect I had for the fellow is now totally gone.
the book does provide a lot of information but with such basic mistakes i don’t have time to verify what is factual and what is Mr. Sharma essentially “talking though his hat” …. luckily i caught his crap about facebook early on, coz i followed the company in the news, God knows how many other mistakes he’s made.
Well lets just assume in this case he is right and inflation adjusted agricultural prices are lower than what they were 100 years ago ..
So?
So what?
It doesn’t mean the sector won’t expand and you can’t be profitable. For example gold went down 50% in 1970’s and then went up 850% in 1980 to peak at around just $800 usd but in 2002 gold run gold went from something like $300 to Sept 2011 high of $1920 and at $1920 it was still lower than its 1980 high of just $800 adjusted for inflation
So?
This doesn’t mean people didn’t profit from it, i personally know investors who made 550% on their money i know jewellers who had huge sales and great profitability, I know a jewellery designer ( a lady … housewife) who had a booming business (home business)
I can’t understand your point ….. this time you please explain to me if agro commodities are below there prices 100 years ago adjusted for inflation how does that mean agriculture sector will not expand.
You’re right about two things though, there is a drought in Maharashtra and that will have a devastating effect on farmers, no doubt and yes many countries agriculture has not done well like Japan, USA parts of Europe but that will change going ahead, try to look at the long term picture, I’m talking about next 40 years.
bhai first i kno vry well abt all prices in local market…i can tell every vegetable/pulses price…
My pt was same they hav alredy risen since 2-3 yrs…if u would hav written it that time i would hav said yess it is..
Inflation ofcorse in India is supply side probs…which wit FDI is likely to improve( wastage component)
Main prob of price increase ofcorse was commodity trading…though commodity people always reject it..& ofcorse for reason of drought in US/ aus?russia..in 2009-10
Demands hav risen coz many in India can nw afford to move towards protein rich food…so prices of this category soared..
Still demand will keep rising wit india pulling millions out of poverty…& jst for eg—an avg US citizen eats 6 times an avg indian..so theres too much of scope…
small farms always hav small productivity( when v say productivity ofcorse profit percentage too samll)…they r more susceptible to weather shocks hav no cushion of govt, bank help—-c farmer suicides in Vidharbha region…they cnt buy costly seeds & equipments & cnt experiment & innovate…so NO1 wants to be farmer nwdys..
For incresing population one needs to hav higher food production—-new land cnt be acquires in Indai…only productivity increasing is an option…wit small farms which r further gting smaller due to family division…vry less scope..It is the reason why for every crop India hav lowest productivity…
Only retails hav profit in agriculture nt farmers…be it US or any other country..
Also all farm diversity hav been destroyed in US coz of retailers & govt policies…70% of food stuff available in supermarkets is either OF soyabean or Corn in US..
Vegatable r grown vry less so their prices r too high …
I guess so we cnt discuss even in D&D othr things except deals..
rajdesidime wrote:
i think thumsup we cnt discuss all this here…MOD has told in othr thread …>"WE r here to find gud deals nt for finding soul mate"
I guess so we cnt discuss even in D&D othr things except deals..
Bhai incase you miss to read this.
chauhanparth577 wrote:rajdesidime wrote:
i think thumsup we cnt discuss all this here…MOD has told in othr thread …>"WE r here to find gud deals nt for finding soul mate"
I guess so we cnt discuss even in D&D othr things except deals..
Bhai incase you miss to read this.
Anant wrote:
See we are here to find good deals . not to search for travel mate and soul mate. better try some travel website for this.
may be i overundrstood above statement…
thx for instant response though..
Raj bhai …. a suggestion you should go into research (in any field) i think you will do well 
@raj First of all I want to clear that my statement should not be treated like a rule book. A wrong discussion was certainly going there and my motive was just to stop them. A healthy discussion is always welcome on desidime and if Dost and Dime is a place to share everything what we will do if people came with topic like-
Want to partner for ecommerce fraud
Want a live in partner.
want a girlfriend like that.
According to rule it should be allowed. Right ?? Bro- Dont judge anyone only with few statements.
chauhanparth577 wrote:rajdesidime wrote:
i think thumsup we cnt discuss all this here…MOD has told in othr thread …>"WE r here to find gud deals nt for finding soul mate"
I guess so we cnt discuss even in D&D othr things except deals..
Bhai incase you miss to read this.
Parthji as you decide the rules can you please tell us if we are permitted to post things in here other than the deals
thumsup wrote:chauhanparth577 wrote:rajdesidime wrote:
i think thumsup we cnt discuss all this here…MOD has told in othr thread …>"WE r here to find gud deals nt for finding soul mate"
I guess so we cnt discuss even in D&D othr things except deals..
Bhai incase you miss to read this.
Parthji as you decide the rules can you please tell us if we are permitted to post things in here other than the deals
Please see my above post. I hope u understand the problem.
@raj bhai…pls dont generalize such comments. We both know it was meant for some other purpose.
Anant wrote:
@raj First of all I want to clear that my statement should not be treated like a rule book. A wrong discussion was certainly going there and my motive was just to stop them. A healthy discussion is always welcome on desidime and if Dost and Dime is a place to share everything what we will do if people came with topic like-
Want to partner for ecommerce fraud
Want a live in partner.
want a girlfriend like that.
According to rule it should be allowed. Right ?? Bro- Dont judge anyone only with few statements.
Anantji here we are just discussing about economic prospects and current affairs …nothing about girlfriend or anything, can you please clarify if this is allowed beacuse we don’t want to break the rules of desi dime as its a nice place to get not just deals info but all kinds of info
ok i think i understand if its against the rules anytime just let me know
thumsup wrote:Anant wrote:
@raj First of all I want to clear that my statement should not be treated like a rule book. A wrong discussion was certainly going there and my motive was just to stop them. A healthy discussion is always welcome on desidime and if Dost and Dime is a place to share everything what we will do if people came with topic like-
Want to partner for ecommerce fraud
Want a live in partner.
want a girlfriend like that.
According to rule it should be allowed. Right ?? Bro- Dont judge anyone only with few statements.
Anantji here we are just discussing about economic prospects and current affairs …nothing about girlfriend or anything, can you please clarify if this is allowed beacuse we don’t want to break the rules of desi dime as its a nice place to get not just deals info but all kinds of info
THUMSUPJI- you carry on.:-D
thumsup wrote:
ok i think i understand if its against the rules anytime just let me know
bhai carry on…. raj bhai kahan gaye…and sm interesting discussion goin on… time mila toh main bhi kuch post karunga..;-}
Gt it MODS…gud to c instant response…
Haa parth bhai…we waiting for ur posts too…
I said above only maybe i thoght i misunderstood it….
Haa toh kaha the hum thumsup…..:-)
Very interesting point of views one gets to read here.
Agreed with thumsup about cycles churning and sector getting rotated.
But Disagreed with finance going down. moreover challenges in agri sector are hard to avoid.
basically poor infrastructure , dependence on rain water are still here.
Even if we assume these problems may get sorted out by some miracle then too a culture like rich farmers in India is hard to come due to over socialistic leech kind of Govt .It will target these farmers by n number of means to extort money .
then lets assume this too is solved.
like any other industry the factor of demand and supply will come into play. if too many people start farming the output will increase ie supply increased with constant demand. (demand from poor is hardly relevant which are majority in India) .
This kind of saturation over a period of years have been witnessed by almost all Industries. So we can safely assume in view of constant demand increase in supply will result in farmers getting poorer sooner than later.
If finance goes down btw consider whole of economy going down.
finance is backbone of any economy without it we cannot survive.
amitinmumbai wrote:
If finance goes down btw consider whole of economy going down.
finance is backbone of any economy without it we cannot survive.
exactly pt i was trying to make…
overall its one system if backbone(finance) is broken….no1 can stand erect…though i may try limping fast( commodities) for sum time…bt over time even legs will stop wrking…
yep. finance has backward and forward linkages to all sector.
break the finance chain and link between all sectors is broken.
amitinmumbai wrote:
If finance goes down btw consider whole of economy going down.
finance is backbone of any economy without it we cannot survive.
Very good point bro well yes that is correct what you say
What I mean to say is the financier type professions like investment banking, private equity, hedge fund, mutual fund sort of stuff will take a backseat which is all booming now … it won’t be totally dead banks will always be there.
Say something like how in Japan finance is dead since last twenty years although the manufacturing industry did well in this case they have no natural resources but their manufacturing industry did well because of exports.
About your point of socialist govt policies you’re right again and that’s one of my concerns, but prices will go up worldwide in agriculture there can’t be too much of a difference otherwise it will open up arbitrage opportunities and the gap will close.
I’m not a professor or anything but if you think it over carefully it appears we are headed that way.
prices hav alredy gone too high…oil prices came dwn to 87$….gud for us…
Japan down so wat…investors hav no boundaries….before 1980’s when japan was offering higher interest rate many invested in their bonds so as to use interest arbitrage….when cycle reversed many broke down…Japanese hav invested world ovr…& big plus for financial services is they can overnight shift frm one place to anothr…
SO if it has to go dwn ….world over it will go dwn…here imp is nt to compare future profits wit 2004-2008 returns…those dys r over…
R socialist policies totally bad….nt at all..we can draw parallels frm Brazil which is more socialist than India..Prob is implementation & proper targeting….Ofcorse NREGA im totally against…since 3-4 yrs govt spending 40,000 Cr over it..if it were to invested on irrigation …boy wat miracle it wouls hav done….specially in drought affected areas….Unless here too 1 gets Ajit Pawar…
India gonna invest 3 lakh crore in coming yrs on Infra projects….so who will invest…most gonna be by PPP mode….Also most gonna be by TAKE out Financing wit many banks, investment funds, bond managers coming togethr…
As investment feeds investment which feeds demand,,,,financing gonna be much more affordable, innovative & will cover many more millions ….Financing indeed has gud future…
Comodities 1 failed monsoon …& we r in trouble…
@raj @tup @ amit
sorry for disturbing your discussion. i meant to say that creating such good topics once in week will be lost after few months. it was really worthy discussion, and its a vast topic, so i suggested that we can create a thread for finance/ economy discussion, as it can benefit for the person joining even in 2014 (although may be little outdated, still the economy concepts remains same.
What u say Mods ?
Certainly the Mods statement u quoted, may be relevant in the source thread, they never meant to stop this, even it will be variety of topics on the forum, may be only people will be interested there. But, a permanent thread will be easy platform for every1 to come and chat, instead of using varied titles which cant be distinguished between the threads, as we dont have chat/finance forum separately.
We can tag that thread in our Monitor topic list and any new update will be reflected Green like our Inbox, will show the time it posted, will show the user who posted and clicking the link will open the last item posted.
jaisa app bola Barood bhai…
If mods nt doing it…i request Thumsup to post such topics frm nw on here in this thread itself…
Of course we do need active participation of bankers as well….I only write wat i undrstood by reading…We hav top notch bakers to provide 1st hand experience & suggestion….
rajdesidime wrote:
If mods nt doing it…i request Thumsup to post such topics frm nw on here in this thread itself…
Of course we do need active participation of bankers as well….I only write wat i undrstood by reading…We hav top notch bakers to provide 1st hand experience & suggestion….
Why not ? Mods are not supposed to create a thread for us, we have to do own,
@thumsup
pl. change the heading, suitably to show something like that < Discussion on Economy, Finance, Money, wealth etc. >
whatever u like.
firstly make it clear u r talking abt….mining,natural resources,agri bottoming out—-in what sence—-production,prices..??
I cnt c any of those…Or equity pricing.??
Also business line- RICH Farmers….who r rich farmers…hardly less than 5% farmers r rich….Forgt such pricy equipments…ystrdy Goyanka jii(of M&M)…gve stament that maharashtra drought reduced tractor sales by 25%…coz farmers hardly hav saving & loans r hard to comeby…
Also ruchir sharma wrote that prices of most agri commodities contrary to commom belief being vry high …Over a 100 yr is actully below inflation…
As u said indian farmer in vry bad condition….vry common reason APMC act…nw being ammended…still no near chance of improving….Reason—-farm size vry small which prevents investment,innovation thereby lower productivity…
In developed nations too farmers in poor shape…only thing they receive huge subsidies frm govt..& this is main contention of India wit them in DOHA round since 2003….NO WTO on agri nt atall moving..
Yes one thing which happen ovr abroad is good .nw farmers before deciding which crop to grow on thaeir fields follow future markets & gt in contract @earlier agreed prices…it provides them cushion against any untoward incidence…I c this happening in India too…
Wat u ha mentioned after 1930 depression is steep rise in comodities happend this time too in 2009-10…coz money moving out of equities into commodities….