India Pakistan Large-Scale War in Next 5 Years Claims USA Report

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India Pakistan Large-Scale War in Next 5 Years Claims USA Report:

A report from the United States has claimed that nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan might engage in a large-scale war unwittingly, even as they would like to avoid military hostility.

The Global Trends report, released April 7 in Washington, noted: “India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian government judges to be significant.” The report is compiled by the U.S. government’s National Intelligence Council once every four years.

A similar report released by the Obama administration in 2017 had warned of a pandemic and a vast economic disruption as its fallout.

The report looks at the trigger for the potential war between India and Pakistan. It said the ability of some militant outfits to conduct attacks, New Delhi’s resolve to retaliate against Islamabad after such an attack and Islamabad’s determination to defend itself “are likely to persist and may increase” in the next five years.

It warned: “Miscalculation by both governments could prompt a breakdown in the deterrence that has restricted conflict to levels each side judges it can manage.”

The U.S. intel report also noted that such a war could translate into long-term economic fallout. It noted that “a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years”.

The report further underlined that the U.S. policy in Afghanistan is likely to impact the neighbouring countries, especially India and Pakistan. “U.S. actions in Afghanistan during the next year will have significant consequences across the region, particularly in Pakistan and India,” it said.

This would be “especially true” if a security vacuum emerges in Afghanistan that results in a civil war between the Taliban and its Afghan opponents, expanding freedom of manoeuvre for regional militant networks, or criminals and refugees flow out of the country, it adds.

The report concluded that developments in Afghanistan would fuel political tensions and conflict in western Pakistan and sharpen the India-Pakistan rivalry.

The US intelligence community warns that water insecurity in the region is also an increasing risk. The assessment includes forecasts by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025, given a combination of poor water conservation practices, rising temperatures, and decreased rainfall.

The report notes that previous extreme weather events, such as the 1970 cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, contributed to state failure in then-East Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh the next year. It warns that future events could also prompt a regional crisis with enormous humanitarian, political, and security implications to which external powers probably would try to respond.

The report points out that security threats have “undergirded popular support” for nationalist leaders, and these threats are likely to continue or worsen in some cases. For example, “military tensions between India and Pakistan are at their most contentious in many years, strengthening leaders in both capitals.”

The US intelligence community notes that information technology is fuelling authoritarian tendencies by making it easier for South Asian governments to influence their populations. It points out that in 2019, India “led the world in Internet shutdowns by a wide margin” — with several months-long crackdowns to suppress protests, including in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan has deployed Huawei’s Safe Cities technology, raising public fears of increased surveillance.

The report notes that the balancing approach, particularly in relation to China, also affects regional dynamics. Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka probably judge their countries “can more easily deflect New Delhi’s demands or block its regional leadership aspirations by maintaining ties with Beijing”.

For its part, New Delhi probably will look for ways to mitigate Chinese influence given China’s expanding foothold in the Indian Ocean, the report adds. For example, India almost certainly will continue to encourage Japan to offer economic investment and some military cooperation to other South Asian countries to push them to align more closely with New Delhi and Tokyo.

The report predicts that despite their growing interest in China, almost every government in the region will seek to maintain ties with the US as part of their balancing efforts. The United States is the biggest export market for Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and most South Asian leaders continue to cultivate and publicly tout their relationships with Washington.

US intelligence analysts predict that during the next five years, slowing economic growth and growing polarisation will pose an increasing risk to traditions of democratic and independent governance in several countries in South Asia.

Many countries will strengthen their efforts to hedge and balance their relationships with multiple external powers, including China, Russia, Japan, and the US.

Through 2025, South Asia will have to manage the challenges that internal security problems, the risk of inter-state war, and the effects of climate change and pollution pose to at least some countries’ longer-term democratic and economic development.

The report projects that economic growth in South Asia will remain slow during the next five years and will be insufficient to employ the region’s expanding workforce — especially as the world emerges from the pandemic.

Before the Covid-19 outbreak, unemployment in India had reached a 40-year high until GDP growth slowed markedly in the latter half of 2019, and India’s strict lockdown from March to May 2020 temporarily drove unemployment up to 23 per cent.

The report argues that the region’s economy is hampered by outdated legal systems, severe pollution, water shortages, and highly bureaucratic regulatory environments — all increasing investor uncertainty. “No government in the region is prepared to undertake economic reforms on the scale required to generate robust growth,” the report adds.

It notes that almost all the economies in the region remain focused on agriculture, with the bulk of their workforces dependent on farming. Most countries’ agricultural sectors are underproductive in relation to the large share of government funds and natural resources they consume.

According to the report, this disparity is driven by a variety of factors, including growing water scarcity, environmental damage and climate change effects, and government failure to reform agricultural subsidies that benefit rural constituents at the expense of growing urban populations.

Deal Wiki

Few Jokes -

West be Like: We know the future, we’re the God’s creations, we’re the supreme. “Tere ko pata nhi lekin tu log war start karega !!!”

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USA be like :- Jaldi se ek War hone ki report nikal deta hu.
India-pakistan ko weapons bhi to bechne hai. 😶👍

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America be like :- itni shanti hai sb jagah… Ab jaldi se ek war ki report nikal ke iss shanti ko bhang kr deta hu😁😂

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Imran Khan be like – sab se pahele hume ghabrana nhi ha

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90% pakistan think that they can win war against India..

Rest 10% is their army.

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USA: India Pakistan War in Next 5 Years.

USA’s Weapons Manufactures : We will be Rich.

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USA ne pakistan ki deadline de di 😂😂

===========

Pakistan: We are going to attack on India.
But after seeing Modi.
Pakistan: Not now bro.

=========

Depressed people :- Majaa aayega 😍

=========

Meanwhile general Niyazi from Hell : " Hum bhi pele gye the tum bhi pele jaoge " 😁

===========

US intelligence be like – war ki baat leak kr denge. Fir pak aur India bahut weapon purchase karenge..paisa hi paisa honga..😂😂

15 Comments  |  
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106
2563
44

…US think tank….why not US think ants….

548
12785
166

Few Jokes -

West be Like: We know the future, we’re the God’s creations, we’re the supreme. “Tere ko pata nhi lekin tu log war start karega !!!”

=========

USA be like :- Jaldi se ek War hone ki report nikal deta hu.
India-pakistan ko weapons bhi to bechne hai. 😶👍

=======

America be like :- itni shanti hai sb jagah… Ab jaldi se ek war ki report nikal ke iss shanti ko bhang kr deta hu😁😂

==========

Imran Khan be like – sab se pahele hume ghabrana nhi ha

==========

90% pakistan think that they can win war against India..

Rest 10% is their army.

===========

USA: India Pakistan War in Next 5 Years.

USA’s Weapons Manufactures : We will be Rich.

===========

USA ne pakistan ki deadline de di 😂😂

===========

Pakistan: We are going to attack on India.
But after seeing Modi.
Pakistan: Not now bro.

=========

Depressed people :- Majaa aayega 😍

=========

Meanwhile general Niyazi from Hell : " Hum bhi pele gye the tum bhi pele jaoge " 😁

===========

US intelligence be like – war ki baat leak kr denge. Fir pak aur India bahut weapon purchase karenge..paisa hi paisa honga..😂😂

59
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There are higher chances of Iran making Israel its nuclear bomb testing site than Pak and India going to war

67
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4

Not 5 years before 2024 election def
This or either a terror attack

53
743
6

Modi be like- situation tense hai,logo ki aankhein failure se khul rahi hai ,elections najdik hai. Political benefit le sakte hai smirk

106
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USA will gain the most if there is a war between India – Pak – China or India – China. It is the only way they can keep their position as worlds most powerful country as well as keep China in check. Their usual strategy is open a battlefront on a foreign continent, reap the benefits, then bullshit about bringing freedom and peace to that place. Rinse and Repeat.

As for the report it is one of thousands reports they make every year, one of them sometime in future will obviously come true.

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SastaRaju wrote:

Not 5 years before 2024 election def
This or either a terror attack

Mini Terror attack is damn sure. But war might not be.
Any sane Indian leader will avoid war with pak in present conditions.
We are not super powers to win war in just few days. Full fledged war will go on for months. At the end Pakistan will eventually lose but they also do have skilled and well trained army with advance weapons to cause enough damage to us. India can win war but will result in economic failure and bloodshed.

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It’s called creating environment and than selling arms to countries. Bloody usa business model.

153
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Inke weapons nhi bik rhe kya 🤔??

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Source?

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mv3qu66Da wrote:

It’s called creating environment and than selling arms to countries. Bloody usa business model.

Thats why western countries are Gods and USA is Supreme God. stuck_out_tongue

Mano ya na mano, humari jindegi me, humara country aur pure earth pe 90% control USA & Western countries ka ha. Baki bache kuch 10% Russia & china ka.

Western country jo bolte ha humlog woh sochte ha and karte ha.

kuch time pahele “World Happiness Report” me Indians Happy nhi ha yeh baat ko Indians kitna seriously le liya. USA k log report padh k bole f#ck off but India me log debate karne baith gaye. smile

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There is nothing wrong in this report that needs ridiculing. It’s one of the probable outcome to their Afghan approach.

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Expand
ULYSSES wrote:

Mini Terror attack is damn sure. But war might not be.
Any sane Indian leader will avoid war with pak in present conditions.
We are not super powers to win war in just few days. Full fledged war will go on for months. At the end Pakistan will eventually lose but they also do have skilled and well trained army with advance weapons to cause enough damage to us. India can win war but will result in economic failure and bloodshed.

Any sane leader

Yeah right

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_One_Miller_ wrote:
@abhishek012 ab samajh bhi jao karne ko nahi mil rha kya ?

@saucap

Bhai jab Omegle se free hote hain, toh yehi sab dhundh lete hain.. release you know! joy joy

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