is recession coming

If you believe it’s coming then yes, even before you realize it will knock your door, but if you think otherwise then it’s hallelujah

Recession starts when Royals hunt for Bachat Deals…

Nah India will not see recession anytime soon atleast in next 30 years because the way Indians live. Global economy was, is and will always be in recession as their benchmark set are always high and we do things more realistically. Understand one thing that Ups and Downs will always be there as things never go one way. If you are behind media reports that jobs are going away and auto is worst hit then stop listening to them. Every sector got hit. A recession is when every sector goes South. Indian economy is going through consolidation where people are making change to their lifestyles to not to suffer in future. They are not running behind cars these days and auto sector is believing that it’s death knell for them but it is not. Every sector loses its sheen over time. But things come back on track after few years. Less demand never means fall of economy. There are certain things which are booming and people shifting to it. Be positive always. I do it all the time.

The sliverline is with demand falling prices correct and it is always good for consumers. Some sectors over the year had started earning big as they priced things without worrying about pocket of buyers. Now they are learning a lesson. So there is winner all the time. Sometimes companies and other times consumers.

Foreign investments in India take it hit because of decision taken by Govt to turn trust into companies for more tax which temporarily driving away money and creating an artificial slowdown. But I would call it a clever step from Govt to test the water. We can never be an economy where people love to invest only for lower taxes. We needed a change and testing new horizons with that. And where would investors go besides India and China where opportunity to make money over next 4-5 decades is more than anywhere else.

Be careful while spending. Heavy recession ahead.

There is unannounced financial crisis in India. Such crises appear to the public slowly. I consider the current situation is only first round of crisis.

• Increasing the NPA of banks means. Scarcity of capital which means no fresh investment. The glorification of bankrupt law and Continuous scams in companies

• Homes are not being sold which means sale of steel, cement, bathroom fittings, construction declining. With this banks NPAs will grow. These NPAs go deep into individual level by making the crisis deeper.

• Vehicle sales are declining. At present first time in the country sale of two wheelers are showing negative growth. Maruti has cut down production by 50%. Many of the auto dealers are closing down. This means there is substantial reduction demand for steel, tyre and other accessories.

The above three things are meant to be the end of the crores of jobs and the reduction of government’s tax revenues.

Ya recession is coming but no one can tell the exact time period where it would unfold

It would start from the UK/US or China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#targetT....

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity.

This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock or the bursting of an economic bubble.

In the United States, it is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales”. In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.

Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing the money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession_i...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ne.exp.gnf...

India’s economy benefited from recent high economic growth which declined greatly due to the global economic crisis.²⁷²⁸ Economic growth in India during FY2008-09 stood at 6.7%.²⁹

The global crisis had less impact of India because exports account for only 15% of India’s GDP, less than half the levels of major Asian economic powers such as China and Japan.

Though he ended up being wrong, the former Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram once boasted that he expected India’s economy to “bounce back” to 9% during FY2009.³³ India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the government will take measures to ensure that the economic growth bounces back to 9%.³⁴ The Asian Development Bank predicted India to recover from weakening momentum in 4-6 quarters.³⁵ At the G20 Summit, India called for coordinated global fiscal stimulus to mitigate the severity of the global credit crunch.³⁶ India said that it would inject US$4.5 billion into the financial system to help exporters.³⁷

Some analysts pointed that India’s growing trade with other Asian countries, especially China, will help reduce the negative impact of the crisis.³⁸ Analysts also said that India’s high domestic demand and large infrastructure projects will act as a buffer reducing the impact of the global downturn on its economy.³⁹ Economists argued that India’s financial system is relatively insulated and its banks do not have significant exposure to subprime mortgage.⁴⁰ In an editorial, the New York Times praised the strong regulations placed on the Indian banking system by the Reserve Bank of India.⁴¹

In May 2009, India reported an economic growth rate of 5.8%, beating most forecasts.⁴² In second quarter of 2009 the Indian economy grew by 7.9% and gave indications that the Indian economy would scale a growth rate of 7% or above in 2009 and 8-9% in 2010. In the 3rd Quarter of 2010, the economy had bounced back with a growth rate of 8.8%.

https://news.sky.com/story/bond-markets-flash-w...

It came after returns yielded by 10-year US bonds – parcels of government debt repaid after a set period of time – fell below two-year bond yields for the first time since the crisis more than a decade ago.

The phenomenon, known as “yield curve inversion”, was also seen in UK bond markets – the first time it had happened since 2008.

It means bond investors are demanding bigger returns for the risk of investing in the short-term than they are for the long-term – seen as a significant indicator that they have lost faith in the economy.

Normally, investors would be expected to demand greater yields for putting their money away in bonds for a longer period.

In the US, such inversions have preceded the last nine recessions dating back to 1955.

Patanjali Ayurveda has shown 10% Revenue Deficit in FY 2018. Not only companies such as Patanjali but Hindustan Lever also have come down in growth.

Now come on the transport-According to the report of the Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training, 15% drop in truck rentals has reported since November 2018. Also Fleet Utilization has dropped more than that. All 75 trunk routes, rentals have gone down substantially. Between April and June, Fleet Utilization has decreased 25% to 30% compared to the first quarter of last year. This also reduces the income of transporters by about 30%. Many operators may also come in the Fleet’s EMI default in the next quarter.

There is a clear impact on the freight demand because of reduction in industrial production. Demand from the manufacturing sector, which contributes the most to truck transport, is at minimum level.

Consumers spending in cities and rural areas have reduced and transportation in agriculture has almost become sluggish after the peak demand of April. In June, the demand for fruits and vegetables by FMCG has decreased by 20%.

Due to the decrease of the freight demand, truck fleet has reduced by 30% on all major routes of the country in the first quarter.

🏾 Important. Please read the whole content carefully and spent your hard earnings wisely and where is necessary.

Sorry for such a long break msg got this above long message on WhatsApp today morning.

Now pessimists will flood this topic with their negative view to make others believe that India is going down. hahaha Trust me, after having around 20 yrs of experience as I started at very young age, I found that pessimist never makes money or have any future. An optimist work with every angle while pessimist works with only one. They neglect any good happening and keep worrying about bad and bad and bad. They prefer to read bad only. This world is not dying and it is not destined to die too soon. Whenever Duryodhan (negative) becomes powerful, Arjun (alongwith Krishna) will arrive to put thing in right place.

We all know where the hell of a demand was coming from and why it is now looking down. During previous Govt regimes, easy access to loans were there as Govt itself was pressurizing banks to provide loans without much inspections. Corporate were happy too with such a system where they need not to worry about if and buts as they knew Govt will bail them out on people’s money. Now this Govt tighten the noose and they are impatient like fish out of water. From manufactures to buyers, easy money was available and so does the demand. But not a single person during that time alerted that whether these things can go on and on. Some did and neglected badly. The results can be seen today.

Tale example of Amazon: They are looking good in every country as they are giving hell lot of discounts from market prices. But then there comes a day when they can’t afford to do it and sales will come down. So on that day, can we say that recession comes for Amazon who creates artificial demand by bringing prices down and then have very little to sell at good rate. So why blame economy when business models are like this only.

Did companies like Satyam died of recession. Ramalinga Raju karmas hit it.

The whole demand that was seen during last 10 yrs was more of a fake demand. People were having easy access to loans as nobody was worrying or had any knowledge that something like DeMo will come.

People were able to pay back 1st loan by taking another loan from somewhere else. So with that thing they kept on increasing their liabilities and country/corporate was looking at this artificial demand from consumers for everything as realistic. When someone sells a product they dont care where you have money from. If bad days arrive for some people like what is happening now as they can’t repay their loans because no easy access to new loans to repay old loans is available now, they thinking that country is going down. NPAs are higher today as people were going behind loans without thinking much study on risk coverage and Congis were pressurizing banks for loans as this is all what they do with people money. Even today NPAs aren’t 10% of assets. If they were even 50%, it wouldn’t have been a trouble. With changing times, things are getting changed and some corporate aren’t able to cope up with that change and crying out loud.

If you heard Mukesh Ambani in AGM held on August 12th, 2019, he shown the future India will have and some losers crying only.

Mark my words, Until now Golden period of India hasn’t arrive since Independence when we were reduced to bushes by Britishers. Universal laws tells that India will the brightest spot in future. You will see hiccups but India will move ahead.

When everyone expect something to happen, it just doesn’t and today most are expecting things to go down except people like me who are bullish and always remain so. That’s how we change people lives.

I think a factor in slowing vehicle sales is the upcoming Bharat VI standards next year. No one wants to buy a vehicle that won’t meet those standards.

i think auto sector slowdown is a conspiracy by which auto companies want to create artificial scarcity with low volume of vehicles & then suddenly hike price when demand kicks in.

1. Waiting for Startup Bubble to Burst.
2. If the recession comes, buy the shares.

P.S: I don’t have much knowledge, so don’t reply me saying whatever…. IDGAF

Electric vehicles is the future,so much pollution,traffic also people today prefer ola uber or second hand used car to buy.used car sale has increased so much.

No recession, but sector rotation will happen by 2020.

No one really knows if we are in a recession or it’s impending on the economy. There is Def a slowdown and media sensationalism is not helping it. Even govt. seems to be not helping it by coming with people defeatist steps like the new amendments in the motor vehicle act which has made people step back and take cognizance of harsh and insensitive govt measures after demonetization and GSt implementation.

There is still money to be made in capital markets and of course loot on e commerce deals will be around :wink