Do you think ARM will replace X86-64 Intel, AMD processors in desktops and servers?
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Do you think ARM will replace X86-64 Intel, AMD processors in desktops and servers ?
Some people thought this was impossible a few years ago but in the last few years there has been so much development in ARM processor that now it seems that in the next 10 years most of the new desktop/server processors will be ARM.
I was reading all this recent news -
Windows OS -
Qualcomm says that most Windows games should “just work” on Snapdragon X Elite PCs
Nvidia and AMD plan to launch Arm PC chips as soon as 2025, Reuters reports
Apple Mac OS -
We already know all Apple silicon processors are mainly based on the ARM architecture. Arm is the basis for Apple's custom processors, which have replaced Intel chips in Macs.
Servers -
According to Bernstein Research, almost 10% of servers worldwide use Arm processors, with 40% of those in China. Omdia reports that Arm's market share in the server market was 7.1% in the second quarter of 2022, up from less than 1% in 2019. DIGITIMES Research expects Arm to have 8% of the server CPU market in 2023.
Chinese datacenter companies are ramping up the adoption of Arm-based system-on-chips. Currently, 40% of Arm-powered servers are used in China.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) -
Arm now claims to hold a 10.1% share of the cloud computing market, although that's primarily due to Amazon and its increasing use of homegrown Arm chips. According to TrendForce, Amazon Web Services (AWS) was using its custom Graviton chips in 15% of all server deployments in 2021.
Microsoft Azure -
Microsoft enters the chip game with its own Arm processors for AI and computing workloads
The 'Cobalt 100' and 'Maia AI Accelerator' chips will power the Microsoft Cloud.
Google Cloud -
Google Announces Homegrown ARM-based CPUs Axion chips
Nvidia -
Nvidia's Grace CPU Superchip is its first Arm NeoverseTM-based discrete data center CPU.
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ARM will replace x64_86 in server industry and I agree with that one, i have hands on experience with ampere altra servers and it promised a solid performance per cost ratio but but but in consumer market it's quiet different, let's say for example the Apple m series SoCs are generally marketed as drop in replacement for earlier intel SoCs but it's far from reality especially if you are not just an apple ecosystem fan boy. Sure x64_86 SoCs are slower when clocked in same speed and power utilisation but it's because of too much legacy ISA present in x64_86 while ARM doesn't house any legacy ISA for their nodes, In real world consumer usage infound ARM to be slightly slower than my other(ryzen 9 3900x) server, although both of them were rented ARM one was cheaper if i compare the core to cost ratio. The test was a simple LNMP stack for wordpress.
I am not talking about 100% replacement here.
I think that in the next 10-15 years, all low-end and mid-range personal computers will be sold based on ARM.
The percentage of ARM based laptop will be more in this.
Nvidia and AMD Arm-based desktop CPUs will also launch next year.
ARM is the base for android phones. Most people are now used to android apps. Now most work on laptops are mainly browser based with mainly office files used offline. linux apps have also advanced well to give a smooth GUI experience.
ARM based Chromebooks are making great advances. Now ARM Chromebooks give the advantage of the familiar android apps, full browser experience, use of offline office files and even linux apps all in a low cost, ultra light, low power device.
Windows laptops are popular due to legacy reasons but more and more people are finding Chromebooks to be of better use. So I see more ARM based devices in future.
No I think Intel will step up their game - they have to survive and stay relevant. They won't become like IBM. But you're right. While ARM won't entirely replace x86-64 any time soon but yes some consumers without strict backward compatibility requirements will move to ARM for better battery life and on-par or better performance per watt. Personally, I've invested too much in x86 since Windows 3.0 so while I'll get an ARM laptop at some point, the majority of my PCs and laptops will be Intel or AMD for the foreseeable future.
With x64 emulation, Microsoft did remove a roadblock but another roadblock is Windows is getting worse by the day in terms of UI and user experience. Older "nicer" Windows releases run natively only on x86-64 (not counting jokes like Windows RT and Windows 10 on ARM which lacks x64 emulation) so and people may wanna hang on to x86-64 much longer.
Enterprise has so much interested in x86-64 and it will be a very very very slow or no transition at all. Remember how stubborn they were about XP to 7 migration.
I cannot stand Windows 11 and find it a disgusting disgraceful pathetic operating system so I'll have to make sure all the 3rd party apps, patches and shell modifications I do to Windows 11 or 10 (e.g. Explorer Patcher, StartAllBack, Open Shell) and a gazillion others run on Windows 11 with emulation smoothly.
I'm sure Intel will manufacture ARM SoCs in the future.
Intel is LUV .
Maybe.but Intel will not remain silen
However the hardware market has a lot of codependencies with other major players, customers.
Somehow I feel the Intel has to up their overall game of hope for the state to keep supporting them during tough times.
Not in the near to medium future, no ARM is not significantly poaching into the market of AMD, Intel in the server space. Desktops, it might.