IPOs & Stock market - Discussion Thread

Ircon apply karein Kya ?

Much required sanity coming in 2 amc stocks whose ipos went into crazy listings. reliance nippon which trades at 5x book value and hdfc amc which trading at mad 13x value. hdfc could and should suffer some more. a financial company above 3x price to book value is anyways nuts. there are half a dozen psu banks bleeding at p/b of 0.2x right now, if someone has to burn money for fun, buy them.

ircon GMP has come down to 0 now?

What’s your review about today’s Blood Bath in share market at around 1:05

Dhfl aur yes bank waale pure loot Gaye aaj..

Some garden shipping named ipo is coming how that is it worth to apply?

both garden reach and aavas are costly. dinesh engineers could be risky but rewarding since it is coming at low valuation and will list in t 2 t segment.

also, for long term one can start accumulating icici/uti nifty next 50 direct fund (or juniorbees etf) and idfc nifty direct fund (or nifty bees etf) in small quantities. don’t be overboard, avoid buying just for heck of it. keep calm and avoid noises, cnbc aur zee business to bilkul mat dekho, stay away from whatsapp groups.

DIALWEALTH UPDATE

What actually happened yesterday

What happened in the financial debt market leading to a huge sell-off and panic in the Stock Market yesterday?

A debt fund of DSP Mutual Fund named DSP CREDIT RISK FUND was holding IL&FS commercial Paper (CP).
This paper were rated AAA.
But last week IL&FS made an interest default hence its rating went down to D.

Redemption pressure came to this fund.

Hence DSP MF sold AAA rated 9.1% paper of DHFL as they needed big fund and hence this quality paper was sold at a steep discount to meet the redemptions.

Fine…this was debt market operations
but its repercussion were seen in DHFL stock… thinking its paper was sold at steep discount… hence company must be in some trouble.

This led to fear of all NBFCs specially HFC’s will have big problem and it triggered sell off in all the NBFCs.

Then followed by banks and YES Bank was already in bad news.

Leading to overall sell-off and volatility.

Now Post this NBFC Sell Off What is expected ahead ?

(1) Due to the redemption pressure on DSP Blackrock MF, the fund house had to sell DHFL Bonds at net yield of 11% whereas as per Issue DHFL had yield of 9.1%. This means the Bond was sold at 18% steep discount (Rs.100 bond sold at Rs. 82). After this so many clarifications are coming up by DHFL that it was a secondary market deal wherein they have nothing to do.

(2) Why did DSP Sell?
Ans : Because DSP faced redemption pressure from the Corporate clients holding Funds that have exposure to IL&FS due to downgrade of rating to D from AAA.
This redemption pressure would have resulted in default by DSP and hence they had 2 options :
(a) Either sell GSec
or
(b) Sell DHFL Bonds as investment at a loss.
Now Gsec is already in loss due to Bond yield having risen hence logically if the loss is same it’s better to sell Corporate Bonds.

(3) Now hereafter other AMCs having exposure of Rs.2800 crores to IL&FS bonds would get redemption pressure from Corporate clients who have invested in this Rs 16 trillion Debt MF industry. Assuming the avg exposure to IL&FS Bonds as 3% of Gross portfolio this means the value of AUM in such affected funds is Rs. 94,000 Crores. Assuming 25% of such investments are by Corporate Client who do not wish to hold D grade funds the redemption pressure would be a whooping Rs. 23000-24000 Crores.

(4) It’s impossible for such schemes to get this amount in a week. Further, illiquid Corporate debt market and DHFL saga results in the fact that AMCs have no option but to sell GSec. Hence, GSec will face a huge selling pressure so either Bond Yield will shoot up to 8.30-8.50% levels or the RBI has to do OMO (Open Market Operations).

(5) If RBI Opts for OMO then the governments spending capacity will reduce by an equal amount and given that elections are around the corner it is impossible for Govt to allow Rs. 24000 Crores out of the system.

(6) The government has only 1 solution: It will have to tell LIC to save IL&FS by ensuring no further defaults specially to Banks and Mutual Funds till elections in order to avoid a financial system crash that will involve a lot of banks, nbfc and Mutual Funds.

At the end LIC will save IL&FS and prevent further defaults.

This will relax the Corporate bond market and stock markets from further panic!

We@Dialwealth are of the view that If there are problems there will be resolution as well some way will be chalked out by govt or stake holders and sanity will return to the market as far as our holding is concerned there is nothing to worry are most of our picks have adequate cash on there balance sheet and are well funded and as expected most of the companies will deliver good Q2 Numbers

Then too if you have any doubt please feel free to contact us anytime we will be available 24×7

IL&FS: Rs 91,000 crore debt that might well be a ticking bomb – https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/in...

0/4 in ircon

0/1 ircon. Expected listing price?

Garden reach ipo flopped. Might get cancelled. Just 67% subscribed, LIC ke pass paise nahi bache shayad.

The only place infibeam is able to sell is stock exchange. Down 65%. Ek supermart, ek beej banane wali company, chaddi banane wale, ek ghadi banane wali company, graphite ke naam par ullu banane wali companies… abhi to bahut scope hai inka number jaldi aane ka.. kachrangee jaise farji kendra the inke bhi kuch na kuch feku niklenge.

one more bites the dust. rbi bans bandhan bank from opening new branches citing huge discrepancy in management. trading at mad book value of 8, this will also go down in history of pump and dump to poor retail investors.

just for how much idiot money is chasing such crap stock, tata motors which sells four wheelers around the world has lower market cap than bandhan bank who has branches less than total number of models tata motors makes.

au bank also giving tough compitition to bandhan. katega jaldi katega.

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Bloomberg quint

Markets bleeding. What are u buying?
I chose a small bet on Reliance and RBL Bank

Consolidated p/e of top 100 stocks has come down to 19.xx levels now. Going by yield curve method (search thread I opened last year), one should be atleast 30% in equity now. High risk investors can take equity:debt allocation to 50:50 considering there may be more fall however highly unlikely now. Avoid fear mongering, avoid high valuation stocks (above 4 p/b or 25 p/e). For p/b & p/e, valueresearchonline has data available and for quick look at p/b specially for financial stock or stocks which require cash, p/b can be found at money control under price to book. Also, cheap p/b (in minus or below 1) doesnt mean stock is cheap, crap like vakrangee are available at 1.xx which doesnt even have any real business, avoid shares which keeps falling until there is scope (like omc turned after huge fall in crude). Baaki markit ki mahima markit jaane. Mere tumhare sochne se ghanta fark nahi padta, jab jab jo jo hona hai tab tab so so hota hai.

I still suggest to pick a good mutual fund or index fund instead of stock buying. I was unwell and admitted to hospital after last wrote about index funds. As broood bhai asked why index funds, I cold not complete reply then.

Here is simple maths on why index funds. Suppose you invest in nifty index etf or fund at 100 per unit, you get 10 units. Market falls 25% and your unit become 75. Now to reach back 100 it will require not 25% but 33.3% rise (33.3% of 75). But in case you buy another 10 units at 75, you have 20 units at 175. Now to reach your price of making profit which is 200, you will need just 14.3% rise in market. So total fall can keep increasing and accumulating more in every fall keeps the desired profitable rise back in control. Only thing is you should strictly follow asset allocation and keep cash part in debt/liquid funds, pf or even fd so when time arise you can swiftly add more units. Buying a share or couple of stocks is always dangerous and investing through mutual fund or etf is advisibale.

India vix is still playing spoil sport, too much of volatility in system. Need to cool down before next massive rally begins. We are just there.

My biggest mistake was not buying EBAY IPO for $4 a share not because I did nto have the money for the 5000 shares but I was too busy with work to sign the paper work… I knew it was a gimmick, the markets are not fair and its gamed. I see so many times… When Russians want to get cheap oil they trash the stock of companies and then buys them up on the cheap. Amerikans just cut out the middle men and just take your retirement..

In case you dont know, Russia is currently preparing for a Nuclear second strike while the US is preparing for a Nuclear first strike. This is far worse than what you heard about the cuban missile crisis. US military attacked the Russian bases in Syria.. Israel helped kill 15 Russian ECM specialists on the most expensive plane in the Russian air force..

But go ahead..

@alientechy22 are we headed for a global crisis? Or a slow down if you may

As last time I timely advised to lock your fixed deposits in icici iwish during 2013 high rate era just before rates started falling, it’s time again to get some fixed deposits specially for senior citizen parents at home as rates are bound to go down in next few months.

If someone is looking for good rates, fincare gives 9% (0.5% extra to senior citizen), equitas gives 8.8% (0.75% extra to senior citizen) for period of 2 years to 3 years. Similarly, Utkarsh bank gives 9% (0.5% extra to senior citizen) for period of 1 year 3 months to 2 years, also Suryodaya bank provides same rate as Utkarsh and Fincare for 950 days.

Remember all these deposits are insured by RBI under DICGC upto sum of 1 lac so it’s advisable to open an fd of not more than 1 lac in these banks. Banks also provides no balance maintaining in lieu of deposits however one should clear terms for debit cards, sms charges and deposit charges.

list of DICGC covered bank can be found here. Always open fixed deposits in these banks only to insure and have a sound sleep. https://www.dicgc.org.in/FdLibCommercialBank...px

thanks. Still not visible to me. maybe on Monday.

@xuseronline what’s your average holding price? Maruti is heading to 5500 levels . There will be EPs cuts, management has given lower guidance

Bad news for Multiple application. Multiple applic ation from third party account stopped.
From now onwards you can make application from your own account only

REMOVED WITH WARNING

Vanguard, one of the most successful investment companies, has invested money into few of the companies on 15th March. This is a good sign. Market is factoring in the big win for BJP.

reit offer coming 1st time in india. might give fd like return. risky just for 8.25% expectations (can give 7-9% return as it is traded in exchange), needs 2.4 lacs initial investment too. early days for reit. good anchor investor list but big pockets needs such steady returns avenues, not small investors.