Discussion on Economy, Finance, Money, Investments etc

It appears as far as money making opportunities are concerned as per my analysis copper will rally soon so this could be the next possible trade, already some Brokers and so called financial experts have given sell calls.

So long copper could be a possible next trade

Current price of copper on MCX is Rs389/- (June contract)

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

No point following the economy unless we can identify mispricings and hopefully profit from it

thumsup wrote:

Well US govt released their recent GDP nos. came out at 2.5% imho this is doubtful, and their latest inflation number is just 1.2% which imho is absolutely impossible. Need to check up what factors they consider when they calculate these numbers. Anwyay they conveniently revise the inflation number just like our Indian govt does for eg Indian Govt declared jan inflation at 6ish% and then just last week revised it to 7ish%

So doesn’t really mean much, personally I don’t see any recovery what I do see is a cover up with all these fake numbers. US infaltion at just 1.2% lol can’t believe any thinking living person would actually believe that.

Also i read somewhere in this forum (I forgot where) that the US govt. plans to end its stimulus program by year end? I can’t believe that either, if they do it will all fall apart like a house of cards …. they know that too.

Just want to tell dimers don’t be fooled its all smoke and mirrors there’s no recovery in the US infact Europe is actually in better shape than the US

regarding inflation nos—- u expected it to be higher..??

It has been in range of 2-3 % since last 2-3 yrs..& arnd 1% since a yr…so wats there to be surprised…oil prices & reduction in prices of comodities reduced it further…EU inflation is even lower than US..
& if inflation increases upto a limit.. its good for economy…otherwise no incentive for investment during deflation ..
bt US being consumption economy its good for them…

Also growth nos r compared to last quarter which as i chkd was 0.4 ….socoz of Low BASE effect..growth nos of 2.5

Regarding figures reliability yes all economies do change it….bt dnt compare on reliability Indian & US stats..Our CSO is known for frequently giving vry wrong nos…Some major programme has been implemented since last yr for upgradation of CSO..
Also Subbarao sometime back criticized for unreliable nos frm CSO…on the other hand US agency even if it revises it will be 0.1/0.2 here & there….so on whole thers no pt in nt believing nos…enough people must be having a watch over those nos to point out mistakes..

Also bhai US has to spring back otherwise no1 in world can grow…IS it possible for world to be stagnant for long…NO,,..So is the US recovery…

Recession starts wit big fish & gradually involves all down the line….Bt recovery starts at distal pt earlier…& alredy talks of India having touched bottom if provd correct…recovery of frontliners isnt far…

Also in much worst situation in 1929….allmajor countries ( except Germany ) had alredy recoved till 1940’s…so no pt that global economy wnt grow & so is US…

thumsup wrote:

It appears as far as money making opportunities are concerned as per my analysis copper will rally soon so this could be the next possible trade, already some Brokers and so called financial experts have given sell calls.

So long copper could be a possible next trade

Current price of copper on MCX is Rs389/- (June contract)

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

No point following the economy unless we can identify mispricings and hopefully profit from it

hav u urself invested>>??

u people wasted (read invested ) my night:-P ……reading it for almost 2 hours……:shock: though no connection to finance, banking, investments…..but to money yes …..so trying to get something from ur discussion.
thanks mates for this thread.
Added fifth green face….

rajdesidime wrote:


regarding inflation nos—- u expected it to be higher..??

I know its higher, the numbers are calculated in such a way that it doesn’t reflect true inflation

rajdesidime wrote:

It has been in range of 2-3 % since last 2-3 yrs..& arnd 1% since a yr…so wats there to be surprised.

Yes this point is right it has been in the Range of 3.9% to 1.05% in last three years but last months numbers are the lowest its been in last two and a half years, but point is it can not come down when prices of most relevant things to the consumer (for eg food) is going up.

rajdesidime wrote:

..oil prices & reduction in prices of comodities reduced it further…

See the infaltion which I mentioned & everyone talks about on TV and print media is called Core CPI thats 1.2% for march 2013, this is the most widely discussed indicator of inflation because the Fed pays the most attention to it in order to decide the Feds Fund Rate. This inflation number does not even include oil or energy prices in its calculation it excludes it so oil prices reducing has no relation to this and is not the reason for it to reduce further.

rajdesidime wrote:

EU inflation is even lower than US..

I don’t even consider that its largely irrelevent from my point of view its like calculating inflation for asia,

rajdesidime wrote:

& if inflation increases upto a limit.. its good for economy…otherwise no incentive for investment during deflation ..

Yes that’s correct economies do require some inflation however in USA the figures are much lower than they should be, inflation is easily over 5% my worry is they are getting higher

rajdesidime wrote:

bt US being consumption economy its good for them…

No not in the current scenario inflation maybe good for housing prices as it would mean home owners would have some equity but in the current state of US economy inflation will have devastating impact it will collapse the bond market in no time as foreign debt holders who own trillions in us debt will see that debt erode the value of their holdings. Once they don’t want to hold US debt anymore US bond market is in big trouble.

rajdesidime wrote:

Regarding figures reliability yes all economies do change it….bt dnt compare on reliability Indian & US stats..Our CSO is known for frequently giving vry wrong nos…Some major programme has been implemented since last yr for upgradation of CSO..
Also Subbarao sometime back criticized for unreliable nos frm CSO…on the other hand US agency even if it revises it will be 0.1/0.2 here & there….so on whole thers no pt in nt believing nos..

If India revises from 6% to 7% thats a 16 percent increase whereas if US revises from 1.0 to 1.2 that’s a 20% increase you have to look at economic numbers as a percentage for a fair comparison, you can’t say 6% to 7% is more than 1% to 1.2% that’s like saying a stock that goes from Rs100 to Rs200 is much bigger increase than one that goes from Rs5/- to Rs10/-

I can assure you our central bank is much better run than the Fed and as far as CSO is concerned US BEA is as bad for eg did you know they are magically going to increase US GDP by $500billion in July which will make it 3% higher they are going to include intangible assets like films books magazines to pump up they GDP numbers

This is exactly what I’m trying to say the number are misrepresentative of facts, inflation is much higher than 1.2% it can NEVER be 1.2%

rajdesidime wrote:

enough people must be having a watch over those nos to point out mistakes..

don’t know yare all I know is if i listened to what “enough people” said I’d be broke today …. so I’ll pass on what “enough people say”

rajdesidime wrote:

Also bhai US has to spring back otherwise no1 in world can grow…IS it possible for world to be stagnant for long…NO,,..So is the US recovery…

US doesn’t have to do anything it can’t do anything, rather than lead the world to grow I think thats a far too distant problem for US to worry about the worlds growth they should consider on more important issues first before worrying about world growth. for eg even as per their misrepresentative numbers their growth is just 1.5% a year average over last 5 years while the debt increase rate is 7.5% average per year which is 5 times higher. I think this is far more urgent problem they should solve first b4 worrying about growth of the rest of the world.

what will happen is China will overtake USA and lead the world economy it has to happen its a certainity, I don’t know when it will happen though but sometime i the near future

rajdesidime wrote:

Recession starts wit big fish & gradually involves all down the line….Bt recovery starts at distal pt earlier…& alredy talks of India having touched bottom if provd correct…recovery of frontliners isnt far…

Yes i agree about recession starts and ends and also about talks of India having touched rock bottom I read it in the paper, actually I don’t pay too muc attn to indian economy, but although not as advanced as US i think we are far more healthier condition than US

rajdesidime wrote:

Also in much worst situation in 1929….allmajor countries ( except Germany ) had alredy recoved till 1940’s…so no pt that global economy wnt grow & so is US…

Totally different situation this will be a inflationary recession like 1974-1976 type not a deflationary one, currently bonds are at near 0% if and stock market is on life support, once bond demand wanes they will have to increase interest rates, if the do that by even 200 basis points they debt will increase by 75 billion just on the interest which is almost as much as the “natak” they did on the sequestration.

rajdesidime wrote:

hav u urself invested>>??

why you want to invest

Raj, I have my reasons which is hard to explain as my english is not so good but even if I could give full reasons (which i tried to give in my last trade with screenshots of my live trade I have taken and my trade in gold before that where i caught the top) you should not invest unless you have a good understanding of the situation and are convinced in your mind otherwise you will surely lose as you won’t know when to get out, the exit is as important as the entry.

I posted this just so interested dimers can take a look and see if it meets their analysis,

~#DHRUV@#~ wrote:@

u people wasted (read invested ) my night:-P ……reading it for almost 2 hours……:shock: though no connection to finance, banking, investments…..but to money yes …..so trying to get something from ur discussion.
thanks mates for this thread.
Added fifth green face….

even I don’t have any connection to banking or finance yare don’t worry about that neither does Raj (as far as i know) … just because someone has studied finance or invesmtment or economics doesn’t really mean they are right and we are wrong for eg consider this study I read in Larry williams book

In 2000 the Wall Street Journal survey of economists revealed that 96 per-
cent of them were bullish.

In 2001 the same surveys of economists showed an amazing 99 per-
cent were bullish on the economy.

In 2002, the same survey was conducted again, and by now 100 per-
cent of the economists surveyed were bullish.

The Wall Street Journal has been doing this survey thing since 1982,
and the track record shows the experts have been correct in predicting
the future less than 22 percent of the time. This is a worse probability than
random guessing!
Yet they continue doing the survey and not telling you how horrible
these guys’ predictions have been.

The London Financial Times (LFT) did a study in 1995 that stated,
“Consensus economic forecasts failed to predict any of the most impor-
tant developments in the economy over the last seven years.”

Hope you find the thread of some use

thumsup wrote:

rajdesidime wrote:

hav u urself invested>>??

why you want to invest

Raj, I have my reasons which is hard to explain as my english is not so good but even if I could give full reasons (which i tried to give in my last trade with screenshots of my live trade I have taken and my trade in gold before that where i caught the top) you should not invest unless you have a good understanding of the situation and are convinced in your mind otherwise you will surely lose as you won’t know when to get out, the exit is as important as the entry.

I posted this just so interested dimers can take a look and see if it meets their analysis,

hey im nt doubting u…i m jst asking if u hav invested…as u kno my status i dnt hav anything to invest..

rajdesidime wrote:

thumsup wrote:

rajdesidime wrote:

hav u urself invested>>??

why you want to invest

Raj, I have my reasons which is hard to explain as my english is not so good but even if I could give full reasons (which i tried to give in my last trade with screenshots of my live trade I have taken and my trade in gold before that where i caught the top) you should not invest unless you have a good understanding of the situation and are convinced in your mind otherwise you will surely lose as you won’t know when to get out, the exit is as important as the entry.

I posted this just so interested dimers can take a look and see if it meets their analysis,

hey im nt doubting u…i m jst asking if u hav invested…as u kno my status i dnt hav anything to invest..

Personally I feel you should doubt and should question.

You’d be surprised to know I win less than 50% of my trades when i calculated over the long term.

Reason I asked is becasase i thought you might be jumping in, which can be dangerous. Lets wait ad analyse what happens I believe coper will rally but as I said above statistically i lose 50% of my trades.

No I haven’t probably next week, i don’t buy/sell in MCX because of rollover chakkar i prefer OTC markets

no its nt inflationary recession….except India, CHina were is recession more…i% for US isnt more…

bond rates lower is nt the reason for recession its the result of expantionary policy of world over central banks that lead to lower bond rates…

China has grown nly coz US citizens kept on consuming more….moreover Chinese hav made such an economic scenario were even 5-6% of growth would be lower for them…NW if US dsnt come up…China will defiantly go down…also they hav alredy invested a lot in unnecessary infra…which for yrs kept economy booming…this options isnt left any more to play with…

For US per capita income is $50K so for them coz of higher base effect even 3-4% of growth is much more..For us to catch ours shouls be above 10%…

Yes those r core infaltion nos similar to our CPI….WPI hav higher weightage of foodstuffs so it varies a lot & RBI relies on CPI for policy network…CPI too hav foodstuff,primary articles bt their weightage is less so its less fluctuating…

similary US core inflation too hav oil, gas, commodities in it bt its weightage is low….so it indeed is coz of lower commodity prices…

regarding debt yes its been prob for them ever since 1970’s & it kept on increasing….though they r trying austerity measures to contain it….bt ONE SHOULDn’t HAV any prob when WORLS is ready to lend it…Even after US bond downgrade investots flock towards US bonds away frm equities…SO its all abt confidence…& i cnt c world’s confidence in dollar shaking atall in near future…

thumsup wrote:

rajdesidime wrote:

thumsup wrote:

rajdesidime wrote:

hav u urself invested>>??

why you want to invest

Raj, I have my reasons which is hard to explain as my english is not so good but even if I could give full reasons (which i tried to give in my last trade with screenshots of my live trade I have taken and my trade in gold before that where i caught the top) you should not invest unless you have a good understanding of the situation and are convinced in your mind otherwise you will surely lose as you won’t know when to get out, the exit is as important as the entry.

I posted this just so interested dimers can take a look and see if it meets their analysis,

hey im nt doubting u…i m jst asking if u hav invested…as u kno my status i dnt hav anything to invest..

Personally I feel you should doubt and should question.

You’d be surprised to know I win less than 50% of my trades when i calculated over the long term.

Reason I asked is becasase i thought you might be jumping in, which can be dangerous. Lets wait ad analyse what happens I believe coper will rally but as I said above statistically i lose 50% of my trades.

No I haven’t probably next week, i don’t buy/sell in MCX because of rollover chakkar i prefer OTC markets

no i didnt commented on copper or other commodity coz i dnt follow them nor hav any idea abt them..

@BTW ur english is much-2 better than many including me..

rajdesidime wrote:

no its nt inflationary recession….except India, CHina were is recession more…i% for US isnt more…

I’m saying not yet, when the recession hits it will be an inflationary one, i feel its only a matter of time,

rajdesidime wrote:

bond rates lower is nt the reason for recession its the result of expantionary policy of world over central banks that lead to lower bond rates…

What I’m saying is with bond yields near zero once the markets correct they can not do much other than monetary stimulus, they can’t cut bond yields any further because thery are almost at zero. In 1987 crash of 22% single biggest crash in history of US markets they cut interest rates over night to stimulate the economy they can’t do that anymore as they’re already near zero.

rajdesidime wrote:

China has grown nly coz US citizens kept on consuming more….moreover Chinese hav made such an economic scenario were even 5-6% of growth would be lower for them…NW if US dsnt come up…China will defiantly go down…also they hav alredy invested a lot in unnecessary infra…which for yrs kept economy booming…this options isnt left any more to play with…

Well I don’t think so China’s biggest trading partner is actually EU, US comes in at number two but US does everything possible to suppress china they opposed they’re entry to WTO etc etc … despite all this they can not keep China down, china will over take them and there’s nothing they can do about it.

China has not grown only coz of US that’s a fallacy, if they don’t export to US they will surely be hit but it won’t be a permanent set back. For eg both ASEAN and Japan combined are bigger customers than US alone. Chinese exports to US are 320 billion but ASEAN & Japan combined are 325 billion.

Yes there will be a housing crash in china but I think they will recover.

rajdesidime wrote:

Yes those r core infaltion nos similar to our CPI….WPI hav higher weightage of foodstuffs so it varies a lot & RBI relies on CPI for policy network…CPI too hav foodstuff,primary articles bt their weightage is less so its less fluctuating…

ya there are ‘n’ number of inflation measures I was just pointing out the one I quoted and most commonly cited the Core CPI does not take into acount energy prices so oil has no effect on its calculation and hence reduced oil prices has no impact on why they have releasesd lower inflation for march 2013

rajdesidime wrote:

similary US core inflation too hav oil, gas, commodities in it bt its weightage is low….so it indeed is coz of lower commodity prices…

No Core CPI does not include energy prices so no question of low weigtage or high weitage, there is no weigtage at all given to energy and food in core CPI.

rajdesidime wrote:

regarding debt yes its been prob for them ever since 1970’s & it kept on increasing….though they r trying austerity measures to contain it….bt ONE SHOULDn’t HAV any prob when WORLS is ready to lend it…Even after US bond downgrade investots flock towards US bonds away frm equities…SO its all abt confidence…& i cnt c world’s confidence in dollar shaking atall in near future…

No they haven’t tried any austerity at all ….. zero austerity. Very difficult to try austerity in democracies. Look what happened when Greece tried they threw eorge Pappendraou (or however you spell his name) out.

See if your debt in increasing but you have strong exports then you will be in stagflation like Japan which is basically a recession but you can somehow still balance your books but even then its a recession.

Now USA has more debt than Japan and much weaker exports than Japan, they were a creditor nation till 1987 that’s long ago now they are the largest debtor nation not just in the world but in the history of the world. Japan is still a creditor nation as far as i know but not USA. Even with all its credit and monetary stimulus Japan is in stagflation fro 22 years.

US has no chance, dollar isn’t even backed by silver anymore its just worthless paper.

I’ve checked everything and cant see any signs of recovery in USA even if I look under a microscope, best way i can put it is USA is like a drug addict, now if a drug addict goes to rehab they have to tie him to the bed and he’ll scream and struglles and cry and go mad until they can get him to gradually kick the dependency on drugs but if they do that people will riot and obama would have surely lost his job so other solution is to keep giving the drug addict more and more drugs in the form of expansionary monetary policies to keep him calm and functioning but in the end he will be more sick and overdose.

Crude explantion but best analogy i can give, its a cul de Sac curve, good explanation of this can be found in the book “The dip” its just 40 pages and a good read.

rajdesidime wrote:

@BTW ur english is much-2 better than many including me..

Yare even i was thinking my english is average, maybe I’m not good at conveying my thoughts properly i think probably this is where i lack

Latest issue of futures magazine, informative articles

http://www.futuresmagdigital.com/futuresmag/may...

Want to buy a house with LAND + 3 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms + garage for Rs 55/-? that too not in rural parts of India but a Big CITY aur woh bhi phoren mein aur woh bhi US mein bhai

Let me introduce you to the city of Detroit in USA the largest city in the state of Michigan, that too a proper suburb of Detroit just 5 years ago they were selling for upwards of $100000/-

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2283597…

Even if you spend $2500 in deferred taxes plus you renovate you’re still getting a super cheap deal compared to what the house was worth just five years ago.

Hahaha recovery ….. funniest part is people actually believe that …… classic

Today I read Slovenia’s banks will be bankrupt because of bad loans and spike in interest rates if they’re not bailed out.

Next bailout after Cyprus is now Slovenia its banking system is almost insolvent

Its a small country so won’t have much impact, but will have to be bailed out anyway by the EU. Thing is Spain is next in line.

Despite all this personally I believe EU is in much better condition than USA, in any case as I mentioned earlier (many times) I think the future will be in asia.

Original titles of this thread was “farming up finance down” the speed at which things are happening I’m even more convinced this is going to be the case since i started the thread.

Does there any thread on DD for beginners in this field, any thread which states- how to & where to open a trading/Demat acc. , only demat/trading needed for shares investments/IPO investments. etc. etc. etc. basics.

+1

Need to invest from starting of this financial year …

Guys. Made a group on whatsapp for share market & commodity tips. Also for sharing news on financial and other matters. Hope it will help new or small traders who gets trapped in market.
PM me ur no. if anyone wanna join.

mail_anwar yahoo.com wrote:@

Guys. Made a group on whatsapp for share market & commodity tips.

One more whatsapp group

i know its one more. But this is for traders n investers.
joined 1 desidime group earlier but what all was there is BC and nothing else.
So, thought this one might help people in making some money…

<a href="http://links.desidime.com?url=mailto:mail_anwaryahoo.com" target=“_blank” rel="nofollow">mail_anwar@yah…om wrote:@

i know its one more. But this is for traders n investers.
joined 1 desidime group earlier but what all was there is BC and nothing else.
So, thought this one might help people in making some money…

anwar bhai apna alag thread bana loo…yaha isko koi nhi pdega

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

gilt, income funds, dynamic bonds. they work just opposite to fd in laymen term. as rbi deducts the rate you’ll get higher return. rupee strength also will help in the cause. only worries is political instability, rupee weakness or sudden high inflation. rbi set to cut atleast 200 basis point before next election. you’ll gain multifold in bond market.

marketdimer wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

gilt, income funds, dynamic bonds. they work just opposite to fd in laymen term. as rbi deducts the rate you’ll get higher return. rupee strength also will help in the cause. only worries is political instability, rupee weakness or sudden high inflation. rbi set to cut atleast 200 basis point before next election. you’ll gain multifold in bond market.

Bhai this government wont stay longer than oct mujhe to risk lagta hai .

akshayw wrote:

marketdimer wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

gilt, income funds, dynamic bonds. they work just opposite to fd in laymen term. as rbi deducts the rate you’ll get higher return. rupee strength also will help in the cause. only worries is political instability, rupee weakness or sudden high inflation. rbi set to cut atleast 200 basis point before next election. you’ll gain multifold in bond market.

Bhai this government wont stay longer than oct mujhe to risk lagta hai .

don’t worry, govt will complete it’s tenure. no party has balls to bring no confidence motion be it bjp or mamta or yadavji.

moreover upa is gonna come with much bigger margin next time so you can stay invested. and ps don’t turn thread off-topic on political talks.

Nice to see other dimers contributions to this thread I welcome all opinions. Investments are hard no doubt but that’s when you start out after some time it gets easier and you will be able to make your own decisions more or less effortlessly.

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

You should consider allocating part of your money in Gold. I have a target of $2500, and that’s just my first target although I believe it will go much higher than that but let it get to $2500 first.

thumsup wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

You should consider allocating part of your money in Gold. I have a target of $2500, and that’s just my first target although I believe it will go much higher than that but let it get to $2500 first.

Bhai, I disagree completely what all u r talking about gold as in my opinion gold will fall again may be in a week or in a month but will fall and will be in this range for a long time…