<a href="http://links.desidime.com?url=mailto:mail_anwaryahoo.com" target=“_blank” rel="nofollow">mail_anwar@yah…om wrote:@

thumsup wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

You should consider allocating part of your money in Gold. I have a target of $2500, and that’s just my first target although I believe it will go much higher than that but let it get to $2500 first.

Bhai, I disagree completely what all u r talking about gold as in my opinion gold will fall again may be in a week or in a month but will fall and will be in this range for a long time…

I agree gold could go lower may even touch $1100 (I don’t know how low it will go I’m just guessing based on past historical retracements) and we know production costs are around $1000 an ounce (rough estimate) plus another $100 an ounce as capital spending needed to keep operations running. So its a rough estimate.

However over next couple of years the only direction gold is going is up.

marketdimer wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

gilt, income funds, dynamic bonds. they work just opposite to fd in laymen term. as rbi deducts the rate you’ll get higher return. rupee strength also will help in the cause. only worries is political instability, rupee weakness or sudden high inflation. rbi set to cut atleast 200 basis point before next election. you’ll gain multifold in bond market.

200 bps- I hope u arent smoking weed. Where did u get the number 200 from?

Jackal wrote:

marketdimer wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

gilt, income funds, dynamic bonds. they work just opposite to fd in laymen term. as rbi deducts the rate you’ll get higher return. rupee strength also will help in the cause. only worries is political instability, rupee weakness or sudden high inflation. rbi set to cut atleast 200 basis point before next election. you’ll gain multifold in bond market.

200 bps- I hope u arent smoking weed. Where did u get the number 200 from?

doubtful hai bhai, 200 bps,, max 100 bps by march 2014, u can hope. anyway subba . is going in Sep 13, lets after that..

sir, shat was the repo rate during 2008/2009 at par inflation? current is 7.25 with 25 basis points cut yesterday. if inflation goes down to 4% mark or low rates will surely see 200 basis points cut. and I’m saying this for a year view not day after tomorrow. 2% cut is not that big to make industries and political pressure happy. and I’m not weeding.

@B@R_0_0_D wrote:@

Jackal wrote:

marketdimer wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

gilt, income funds, dynamic bonds. they work just opposite to fd in laymen term. as rbi deducts the rate you’ll get higher return. rupee strength also will help in the cause. only worries is political instability, rupee weakness or sudden high inflation. rbi set to cut atleast 200 basis point before next election. you’ll gain multifold in bond market.

200 bps- I hope u arent smoking weed. Where did u get the number 200 from?

doubtful hai bhai, 200 bps,, max 100 bps by march 2014, u can hope. anyway subba . is going in Sep 13, lets after that..

Ya 200bps looks like a fantastic figure conjured out of nowhere by marketdimer. I hope he gives a justification / reference for what he’s saying here. Even I think 100 bps cut may be in order in the coming months if rainfall is good. Thanks.

@B@R_0_0_D wrote:@

Jackal wrote:

marketdimer wrote:

akshayw wrote:

Bhai log 2 lakh around cash invest karna ho to abhi what are the best options.FD are becoming useless with such inflation rate.

gilt, income funds, dynamic bonds. they work just opposite to fd in laymen term. as rbi deducts the rate you’ll get higher return. rupee strength also will help in the cause. only worries is political instability, rupee weakness or sudden high inflation. rbi set to cut atleast 200 basis point before next election. you’ll gain multifold in bond market.

200 bps- I hope u arent smoking weed. Where did u get the number 200 from?

doubtful hai bhai, 200 bps,, max 100 bps by march 2014, u can hope. anyway subba . is going in Sep 13, lets after that..

fir toh sarkar usko Governor banayegi jo unki baat sune & repo/crr cut kare…

Bfore every policy announcement chindu, montek shout for heavy rate cuts after subbu announces vry small cut…to save their faces they tell bfore press…they r satisfied, it is on expected lines…blah…bla…

marketdimer wrote:

sir, shat was the repo rate during 2008/2009 at par inflation? current is 7.25 with 25 basis points cut yesterday. if inflation goes down to 4% mark or low rates will surely see 200 basis points cut. and I’m saying this for a year view not day after tomorrow. 2% cut is not that big to make industries and political pressure happy. and I’m not weeding.

RBI has nw shifted its inflation expectation to 5% as normal…so even if its 5% 1 couls c 200 bps cut….
& yes out of growth & inflation recently RBI’s tilt & emphasis has been towards infaltion control…
yes as u said monsoon & all….bt more than that int commodity prices mainy falling oil is supportive for cuts….

& most imp factor is after 3 yrs of high infaltion growth YOY….base has shifted on much higher side so due to high base effect infaltion shall come down…

marketdimer wrote:

sir, shat was the repo rate during 2008/2009 at par inflation? current is 7.25 with 25 basis points cut yesterday. if inflation has to go down to 4% mark or low rates will surely see 200 basis points cut. and I’m saying this for a year view not day after tomorrow. 2% cut is not that big to make industries and political pressure happy. and I’m not weeding.

Marketdimer, the conditions at that time were completely different. We were falling off a cliff and drastic steps were needed. Today situation is slightly different. For inflation to go down especially CPI either populist measures must be removed / slowed (which may not happen considering elections are next year) or rainfall must be good.

I am hopeful for a good rainfall this year considering forecasts by both Skymet and IMD and absence of El Nina. That should translate into some easing once CPI comes down.

Either way just for your reference, 7.37-7.4 on the 10 year G-sec yield curve is a major resistance point. It has always been a big barrier to cross. Gilt funds, dynamic funds will give good returns, but only if the above level is broken on the yield curve. Till that from current levels or even from 7.87 on the yield curve, the appreciation in bonds would not translate to more than 10%. Equities may be a better bet in my opinion. Thanks.

P.S: – 10 yr G-sec is here – http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GIND10…ND

you guys are missing the plot. this is election year. every election year sees low rates, low inflation and high growth.

sarkaar hum apke jitne padhe likhe na hon par itna jaante hain 200 basis kitna hota hai. aap log bhool gaye 1 mahine pehle yehi aap iim passed out the Jo market ka bedagark maan chuke the jab is naacheej “to be governor” ne kaha tha short term rally hone wali hai. khair koi nai. bade log badi baaten. aap log ganit lagate raho, chota muh choti baat nahi karega.

yes as Jackal righly mention 08-09 were yrs if monetary & fiscal stimulation to tide over world over recession….actully it was well managed bt only prob too much of it for prolong time caused Inflation out of hand….

correct that it was supply side infaltion still if transition frm stimulus to the other side were to be smooth we would nt hav faced such persistent higher inflation coz beyond a pt its nt inflation perse bt inflation expectation which matter a lot…

marketdimer wrote:

you guys are missing the plot. this is election year. every election year sees low rates, low inflation and high growth.

sarkaar hum apke jitne padhe likhe na hon par itna jaante hain 200 basis kitna hota hai. aap log bhool gaye 1 mahine pehle yehi aap iim passed out the Jo market ka bedagark maan chuke the jab is naacheej “to be governor” ne kaha tha short term rally hone wali hai. khair koi nai. bade log badi baaten. aap log ganit lagate raho, chota muh choti baat nahi karega.

I think no one disputes your call or analysis. Its just that 200 bps is very large. And yes, rally has started coz Gold and crude both have given a breakdown. We should sustain this rally for one more year at least and I’m hopeful of 30K on the Sensex if Govt initiates more reforms and rains are good.

marketdimer wrote:

you guys are missing the plot. this is election year. every election year sees low rates, low inflation and high growth.

sarkaar hum apke jitne padhe likhe na hon par itna jaante hain 200 basis kitna hota hai. aap log bhool gaye 1 mahine pehle yehi aap iim passed out the Jo market ka bedagark maan chuke the jab is naacheej “to be governor” ne kaha tha short term rally hone wali hai. khair koi nai. bade log badi baaten. aap log ganit lagate raho, chota muh choti baat nahi karega.

NO infact in election yrs govt try to spend more & it shall lead to higher inflation bt as i mentioned in above post there r some natural hurdles to pull it back frm another surge….

& GOvt has no role in policy cut….& market toh bahi aap ko zyada pta hai fundamental se zyada speculation pe chalta hai & alredy rate cuts announce hone ke pehle factor in kr leta haii…

Chindu’s new GOLD DEPOSIT scheme 2013

This new gold deposit scheme (2013) will be operated by Post office (in rural areas) and public sector banks.
The concept is similar to fixed deposit scheme.
You deposit money to the bank / post office, and they will give you a gold deposit receipt.
After end of fixed time (maturity), you give the receipt to bank and you’ll be given options
either get possession of gold
Take away cash (prevailing gold rates at that time).
Convert the gold deposit into fixed deposit (cash) and get interest rates (like in usual fixed deposit schemes).
Plus benefits in tax (capital gains, income tax).

rajdesidime wrote:


NO infact in election yrs govt try to spend more & it shall lead to higher inflation bt as i mentioned in above post there r some natural hurdles to pull it back frm another surge….

& GOvt has no role in policy cut….& market toh bahi aap ko zyada pta hai fundamental se zyada speculation pe chalta hai & alredy rate cuts announce hone ke pehle factor in kr leta haii…

Raj who has told you this?

About election years lead to higher inflation?

i hav written it shall coz of higher expenditure & high money supply & also that it shall nt coz of reasons i hav mentioned above..

on contrary Im of belief that market is expected to fall sharply in near future. not because of Indian fundamentals, they are intact, the rally of Japan and the USA will be major factor pulling down the market. Japan market has run too far too quick, USA market is running on quantitative easing which is almost at last cycle. further Brazil and Mexico, 2 big ems have already started to crack. this is my view and I can be weeding at the moment I write this so take it as pinch of salt. I sold my portfolio on Monday and Tuesday itself and added further to short term funds, kotak gilt and uti dynamic in expectation on that golden 200 basis points. have already made some 18-21% annualised return on some gilts and bond funds since Sep last year.

Next clue to find the actual Question:

This thread talks about Winning FREE Recharge of Rs. 1 Lakh Daily. This is where you will get to know your actual question…

rajdesidime wrote:

i hav written it shall coz of higher expenditure & high money supply & also that it shall nt coz of reasons i hav mentioned above..

Raj there’s no relationship between election years and high inflation rates, or low inflation rates for that matter because there in no discernible relationship between election years and inflation rates.

I had checked it myself by putting inflation data and stock market index data into excel to confirm any relationships, there is a relationship between stock indexes gains/losses and election years but nothing between inflation rates and election years.

You can check it yourself, just go to inflation tables they are available right back till 1914 also Dr. Nouriel Roubini studied this as well and found no relation at all.

Infact of late (inflation has been lower in election years and monetary base has decreased (Marketdimer was just guessing of course when he said that) but it still doesn’t mean anything its just a streak and is not even statistically significant.

There is no relationship between election years and higher inflation.

marketdimer wrote:

USA market is running on quantitative easing which is almost at last cycle. f

What do you mean by last cycle?

thumsup wrote:

rajdesidime wrote:

i hav written it shall coz of higher expenditure & high money supply & also that it shall nt coz of reasons i hav mentioned above..

Infact of late (inflation has been lower in election years and monetary base has decreased (Marketdimer was just guessing of course when he said that) but it still doesn’t mean anything its just a streak and is not even statistically significant.

thumsup wrote:

marketdimer wrote:

USA market is running on quantitative easing which is almost at last cycle. f

What do you mean by last cycle?

2008-2009 was just one year ….but you said:

marketdimer wrote:

this is election year. every election year sees low rates, low inflation and high growth.

This is an absolutely incorrect statement, election years don’t tend to show lower rates and “EVERY” election year certainly does not see low rates.

Also request you to please answer my question in the previous post.

edit: think we both posted at the same time, so didn’t see your reply, so anyway if i understand you correctly you’re saying this round of open ended QE3 will be the last round?

thumsup wrote:

2008-2009 was just one year ….but you said:

marketdimer wrote:

this is election year. every election year sees low rates, low inflation and high growth.

This is an absolutely incorrect statement, election years don’t tend to show lower rates and “EVERY” election year certainly does not see low rates.

Also request you to please answer my question in the previous post.

and yes, i meant that.

marketdimer wrote:

thumsup wrote:

2008-2009 was just one year ….but you said:

marketdimer wrote:

this is election year. every election year sees low rates, low inflation and high growth.

This is an absolutely incorrect statement, election years don’t tend to show lower rates and “EVERY” election year certainly does not see low rates.

Also request you to please answer my question in the previous post.

please check data for 2004 as well. inflation and interest rates were low in compare to past 1 or 2 years.

and yes, i meant that.

I already said that last few yrs have tended to show low rates, but 2008 & 2004 don’t constitute “EVERY” Why don’t you check the data since 1914?

Also you know what lets just make a note of what you said:

May 2nd 2013: 7.5%
May 2nd 2014: 5.5% (expected)

QE3 will be the last round of QE, no increase after this.

1997, yoy low 4.66.

1998 april, after elections yoy 10.51 that rose to 19.67% in few months.

marketdimer wrote:

1997, yoy low 4.66.

1998 april, after elections yoy 10.51 that rose to 19.67% in few months.

Do one thing check this

http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloa…

net not working too tough to write big thru cell…
BT in short yes there is no relation as such BT Asian fovts do spend more during election year also lot of black money enters system so broad money does increase BT yes to show up in inflation now there’s a lag so it might not be visible in no’s as such….. remember cong farm waiver 60k crore..

there you go. you turned out to be iim wala banda and am speaking from what i see/saw in past or feel/have felt (and certainly not guessed). it’s obvious that inflation softens and that leads to ease of interest rate by the rbi. i may be sounding unrealistic on 200 basis points but it’s pretty much possible to lift industrial and infrastructer condition as well as keeping on political pressure which subbarao ji can deny. in past there has been a 300 basis point increase from april 2010 to july 2011, a 325 basis points fall 5 months before april 2010. blame these now to instabilty/stabilty in econmic front or governer of rbi weeding, much more big rate cuts and rises have been seen in the past.

See look here marketdimer saab what I’m trying to tell you is even when i read your 2% cut i also felt its bit too much but didn’t say anything as I don’t want to sound negative or make u think I’m being aggressive or anything like that. We’re all here to learn and sharing info facilitates learning. So anyway I assume you have your reasons.

But when you mentioned as one of the reasons to be every election year we will see lower rates I know that’s not the case that’s why i immediately mentioned it just to point it out. Even when Raj said it leads to higher rates I immediately pointed it out to him also that’s not the case and he has seen my reasoning and accepted it. I’m just clearing up this fallacy we should remove this point from our reasoning and consider the other points.

I don’t know what you mean by iim banda and all I dont even have mba, but i did the research myself and believe me there is no relation between election years and inflation rates. I quoted the research paper to you coz that’s all i could find, it clearly says although for last few years they have drifted lower it can not be concluded that election years show lower interest rates as its not statitically significant. For statistically significant results you have to have at least 30 instances. The paper only examines from 1996 I went back to 1914 and didn’t find any relation. There is no relation between election years and inflation rates so we should remove this point from your reasons for 2% cut and consider other reasons you gave. That’s all I’m trying to say.

One last point by saying “guessing” i meant it in a good way, as there is no evidence anywhere of significant correlation between election years and inflation rates, I assumed you had not done the study yourself, because if you did then you would know that there is no relation that’s why I said you are guessing it to be so. Hope that clears it up.

Regarding QE I don’t believe this will be the last QE I believe they will increase it, but lets just go forward and see what happens.

I appreciate your contribution.

These are excellent points put forth by all marketdimer, thumsup and raj dude. Appreciate the contribution.

I’ll put forth my views too here and am using Gann analysis for these. I feel we have turned a major leg up in the cycle in the month of April 2013 for Indian markets and somewhere in Jan 2013 for the US markets. Such leg ups are usually not short term affairs and are likely to result in substantial gains over longer periods before giving a much needed reversal.

I feel if we combine this analysis with Fibo and trendlines and with VIX, we should be headed to 30K atleast on the Sensex in the next year. I won’t be able to give a target for the DOW as I haven’t done a similar analysis on it, but from the early looks of it we should be headed somewhere close to 20K on that too.

Fundamentally, things are bad on the ground here in India. We need to understand that most of the money is hot FII money thru QE which may reverse. But the fact that in the face of such a slowdown, rampant corruption and deteriorating fundamentals Sensex did not correct to 12K is an indicator that the FII money that was poured in since Dec’11 is not in a hurry to exit. They would at much higher levels from here on when retail participation is more. That may also coincide with withdrawal of QEs by all centralized banks one after another which I think is atleast a year away. We also would have good easing here in India (i.e. reduction in rates) going forward, though I cannot say whether it would be 100/150/200 bps etc. Hence I gave the yield levels for understanding in which if 7.37 is broken then we have a quick move downwards.

My simple view is we are in early stages of a liquidity driven rally which can be phenomenal for short term returns but ephemeral for long term players. Gold and crude have given significant breakdowns (target for gold has to $1,000-~1,050/oz in the coming months translating to ~15-16K /10 gms in rupee terms). Rupee also should slowly appreciate to reach 50 in this time period. All these bode well for reduction in the Current account deficit (CAD) which may also lead to a rating upgrade later.

Staying nimble in the game is in order. Happy investing.

Cheers

A crucial factor to consider at this point of time is the German Election in Sept. Germany is the powerhouse of the EU economy, Angela Merkel won’t do her "best’ but will do “whatever necessary” to try to get re-elected. So we can expect good news out of Germany for sure.

However at the same time she can’t appear to be sympathetic to other EU members who are in trouble and certainly not bail them out at the expense of the German taxpayer anymore. So she’ll have to take a hard stance, considering this Slovenia won’t get a handout from Germany they’re going to have to make some contribution maybe in the form of confiscation of bank deposit like we saw in Cyprus. So we can expect some trouble out of the EU as far as Slovenia is concerned.

Need to watch the EU, if EU is affected most world markets including Asian markets will also be affected irrespective of fundamentals, I’m not saying it will happen I’m just saying that’s what I’ll be looking at.