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Deal Subedar
thumsup

Cycle is changing, finance/banking has peaked and will probably decline agriculture/mining/natural resources has bottomed out and will probably rise.

In ten years many investment banker types won’t have jobs and instead of driving BMW’s & Mercedes like they do today they will be driving Maruti’s and farmers instead of driving Maruti’s like they do today (well its already made a lot of gain so maybe they drive honda city’s today) will be driving Mercedes.

I already mentioned I’m totally bullish on agriculture/petroleum engineering/agro-biz/environmental engineering/mining and why as well as why I’m bearish on finance and why in many of my previous posts so won’t get into that.

today —→ http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-an…

Company is targeting 500% sales in just over next three years. I didn’t expect this to happen so soon though. Still in India farmers are not making as much profit as they should coz of govt policy. Lots of things to be worked out but in very short …..food prices have gone dramatically up, inventories are at lows in some cases historic lows, demand is going up higher and higher, water will soon be a precious resource etc etc

Its a no brainer.

In 1950’s farmers were wealthy most sought after branch at IIT was civil engineering, ISM Dhanbad was a reputed college, and bankers weren’t rich not many people even studied finance, well there’s a good chance of things going back to this kind of scenario.

Take the case of USA finance was booming it peaked with the 1929 crash and finance went into decline the farmers were the rich ones in 1930-1960 and finance took a backseat, then in 1970 with the great bull market in commodities and stocks and bonds finance came back into fashion and the farmers took a back seat.

I think yahoo or some site published an article about 5 most promising professions and 5 worst professions and agriculture was listed as one of the worst well they are totally wrong imho ….. I’m mentioning this in advance just in case anyone posts that article

I know this sounds totally ludicrous but for the dimers who keep posting about what they should do after college / job etc you should further research this.

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Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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REGISTRIERUNG

The Varengold Bank FX Trading Challenge has unfortunately already begun. We will let you know as soon as you can register for the next FX-Trading Challenge.

Seems I missed this one. anyways will look for next one..

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Registered and received a call from Germany about If I am willing to open a live a/c.
duh! should have entered random number instead of my mobile number.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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amitinmumbai wrote:

Registered and received a call from Germany about If I am willing to open a live a/c.
duh! should have entered random number instead of my mobile number.


As far as I remember it was a demo account, maybe the rules have changed https://cdn1.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_sad.gif

edit: Bro are you sure? point number 7 says its a virtual account, its 2011 regulations but its been that way for many yrs and should still be the same

http://www.trading-challenge.com/pdf/20110901_T...
Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Not for the contest.
Contest has already started so I cannot participate. it was a marketing call to buy their services

Deal Captain Deal Captain
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All Contest Forex Happen In Demo Account Only

If You Winner They Will Give You Account With Money Where You Trade And Earn For Them And They Will Give Incentive

Even You Can Try Your Self Also Download MT4 From Gci And Play Demo Everyday With Demo Money

In Zerodha You Open Account With Zerodha After You Apply For 60 Day Challenge And Play With Your Money 2 Month

If You Earn Good Money In 2 Month Some Hedge Company May Hire You Who Tie Up With Zerodha

Yes Off course Your Brokerage Also Will Refund Of 2 Month

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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thx good info wolf bhai:-}

Would like to add FX has some live contests also IBFX & FXCM and some others have live contests but from what I’ve seen ALL these types of contests have no meaning, I even know an India who won the FXCM one, these contests just have one objective and that’s your net gain or ROI, the trader who won the FXCM contests subsequently lost all his money, I have a contact who works at FXCM and he told me almost no one ever makes it twice to any of the contests as winners and from a/c stats most winners give up everything subsequently.

I’ve been doing this for a long time and consider the Varengold contest a true measure of a traders skill because the winners are determined by risk adjusted returns as defined in the contest regulations.

The other contests have really no meaning, funny part is most traders on investment forums don’t even know about the Varengold contest because they don’t really understand the basics, and the role risk really plays in trading. Such people eventually lose all their money sooner than later swinging for the fences.

Also in usual contest will last for a month (again has no meaning) or so the winners usually just get lucky for eg I once asked a trader about his Maximum Adverse Excursion and he had no idea what it meant or what I was talking about https://cdn1.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_eek.gif

another case : in 2007 i remember reading the winner of the famed CNBC trading contest was a waitress who never bought a stock i her life she beat 377000 participants many full time traders and fund managers.

What does this tell you? Thats she’s a skilled trader to beat everyone else? Of course not, she just got lucky because these trading competitions just calculate net gain. These competitions aren’t any measure of a trader skill its more a measure of a novices luck.

This business requires (or demnads rather) copious amount of study and analysis and a buketload of emotional control, those of you who trade will agree with me on this. If anyone thinks they can read a book over the weekend and trade the next week and compete with professionals who have been doing it for decades they are sadly mistaken. They might get lucky for a while but they lose everything subsequently this is the same thing that happens in these type of trading contests.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/19749929/ns/business-...

QED

Deal Captain Deal Captain
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Actually Forex Trading In India Is Not Legal As Per My Info I Mean No One Have License

You Can Trade In Some Currency Only Like USDINR JYRINR And Other Some But That’s Diff From Forex Trading

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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wolf wrote:

Actually Forex Trading In India Is Not Legal As Per My Info I Mean No One Have License

You Can Trade In Some Currency Only Like USDINR JYRINR And Other Some But That’s Diff From Forex Trading


Yes I agree with you although lot of people dispute as far as my interpretation goes as well its not legal

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Long term trade (investment)


I like assets which go up / or down for years perhaps one or two decades like for eg gold began its bull run in 2002/03. Or stock bull market began in 1980’s etc.

Currently I feel there are two markets which will run in one direction for decades, the first is the JGB and the second is the US Treasury bond. I really haven’t looked into the JGB as far as an actual trade is concerned, you know like a direct short sell, or an ETF, OTC short trade, the cost and commissions, the liquidity etc.. need to look into it

Coming to the US govt bond I feel may be a better play in terms of convenience. Bonds have been in a bull market since 1980 when rates were around 18% and now they’ve been going strong as rates gradually dropped to today’s value roughly 2%.

I think that’s going to change yields will start moving up for the next 20-30 years and

it will be one of the best shorting opportunities of our generation


as they’re currently in something like 240 year highs. It could be just like catching the gold bottom in 2002/2003 … same long term play. Multi decade run. Hopefully sometime this year if I see any signs the market has topped and beginning its downtrend I will probably jump in. Don’t know when yet, but my analysis tells me we aren’t too far from that time, hopefully it will begin this year. Not sure about the timing yet.

Interested dimers could study and convince themselves

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Good Idea but how to trade them from India.

I want to trade so many derivative contracts available in US markets but limited by accessibility to them https://cdn3.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_sad.gif

Deal Captain Deal Captain
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Amit Wait For some Year Forex Will Come To India For Sure

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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amitinmumbai wrote:

Good Idea but how to trade them from India.

I want to trade so many derivative contracts available in US markets but limited by accessibility to them https://cdn3.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_sad.gif


You can open an account with any US broker and trade there is absolutely no restriction for exchange traded products so go right ahead.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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I am aware of none that will allow me trading in LEAPs or exotic equity options. Most of the websites online provide facility to trade in currency or futures. none of which I am comfortable with.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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amitinmumbai wrote:

I am aware of none that will allow me trading in LEAPs or exotic equity options. Most of the websites online provide facility to trade in currency or futures. none of which I am comfortable with.


Not able to understand, you want to trade US leaps right? On which exchange do you want to trade them?

is it the BATS, BOX, CBOE, ISE, MIAX, NASDAQ OMX, NYSE AMEX etc etc ….

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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any of the exchange preferably NYSE though.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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amitinmumbai wrote:

any of the exchange preferably NYSE though.


As I said there is no restriction for resident Indians to trade on recognized exchanges anywhere in the world on margin, don’t listen to all those investment forum type gossip mongers they don’t know what they’re talking about. I have read the relevant regulations plus there is a big commodity trader living in Mumbai who trades commodities on at least 12 international exchanges out of his worli office, I actually went and met him some years ago and I can assure you its perfectly legal.

If your product is listed for trading on NYSE (check whichever options you want) then you can open an account with any international broker who is member of NYSE. There are ‘n’ number of brokers if you want broker with office in India you I already replied to your pm that you can consider IB. I’m sure there must be others

You can check their available products here —→ http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?…

You can contact their office for more details —>http://www.interactivebrokers.co.in/en/ma…hp

(please click on global products tab you can trade over 100 market sectors in 20 countries stocks, options, futures , bonds etc)

If you don’t like them for whatever reason no problem you can open an account with any broker who is a member of NYSE.

Actually I’m a bit hesitant to mention any broker in public because I don’t want to promote any in particular I just suggested IB to you because it seems to have a fairly good reputation, of course this doesn’t mean its infallible see what happened to MFGlobal.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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just linking my old threads so they are all here in one place

My view on ecommerce:

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

My view on gold:

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

My view on state of US economy

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

Tax rates in india:

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

Improve job prospects:

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

If you want to move abroad info that may help

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t...

My only post rying for fpd which totally flopped https://cdn3.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_sad.gif

http://www.desidime.com/forums/hot-deals-online...

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Thanks I guess I got what I wanted.

Analyst Analyst
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didn’t read whole….BT yea I inDians can invest subject to upper limit….revised time to time….also we have full current account convert ability…not capital account ….once we achieve full capital can’t convertibility we can invest to any limit…..so we have something called as dirty float exchange

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Curious to know if anybody is trading in LEAPs? if yes how much beneficial do you think it is?

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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raj lagta hai tu exam mein busy tha … kaisa gaya?

amitinmumbai: glad I was able to help, finally which broker did you go with. Regarding LEAPS well it depends do you mean just naked buying/writing LEAPS or complex hedged options strategies? I’m not much into options, I don’t have enough in depth knowledge especially of the greeks, do buy them occasionally nothing beyond that, earlier had tried out some complex strategies but brokers back then (RKG … i think) never gave me the benefit of reduced margins for hedge strategies their standard answer used to be "aap ko hedge ka benefit nahin milega … blah blah …. so gave up.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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I am going for IB.
I will try first naked options strategies and later on complex one. I always wanted to trade in exotic options so will try hands there as well..

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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good to know, hope you share some options strategies I’m sure dimers (myself included) will find it useful https://cdn2.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_smile.gif

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Mostly condor strategies work best. but strategies depend upon type of market ie bearish, bullish or volatile. market is non trending most of the time so condor will work best. but entry exit etc will depend on technicals purely. Listening to news or views is strictly no in trading.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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great https://cdn2.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_smile.gif well good wishes to you … and trade carefully

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Thank you. Next few months I have to paper trade options listed in nyse and get a good foothold. probably after that I will be trading real time like am doing in nifty now .

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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well slow day today …

a word about scalping, its widely considered scalping is the quickest way to make the max amount of money, although this is true my studies indicate its also the most stressful way and the one with the highest failure rate.

one should not attempt scalping unless already experienced and successful with positional trading, case in point Larry williams a trader with five decades of experience and a publicly proven track record even he says, he’s still not proficient in day trading and it took him 20 years before he was able to achieve some degree of success at it.

So be warned of the perils, also I admonish you not to believe people who tell you they learnt trading in a few months (this itself takes years) and then proceeded to exclusively scalp and that too using charts, because they are lying, maybe there is a few exceptions but I didnt come across such a person

In my experience lots of people i met claimed to be scalpers trading from tick charts but when I questioned them a bit I could tell they aren’t even successful traders leave alone day traders. I just know very few guys who scalp for a living and they read the order book.

Way to do it is firstly you need to have a static DOM preferably with time and sales a dynamic one will not do because the ladder will be moving so much you will get a headache, then you need to look into the bids and ask prices, if you stare at the screen for 6-8 months everyday for couple of hours you will begin to tell when big players manipulate the market to get large orders in. What they do is put in both bid and ask and try to make a level appear weak, then they pull their bids so other think the market will break and then when people begin putting in asks they buy them all up suddenly this is one of the patterns you will lear others as well, the scalpers that i know tell me there are about 5 reliable scalping setups all dependent on the DOM screen.

You need to identify the big players and play the market in their direction, because as i already mentioned earlier in thumsups rule “he who has the most money in most cases wins so you have to piggy back in his direction”

traders i know use trading technologies x-trader terminal considered for a long time the gold standard for scalpers. I believe recently there are some newer scalping terminals with a dynamic DOM and reasonably stable but I’m not so familiar with them.

another point is you cant have targets and stops, you of course have a disaster stop in case of a natural disaster or server offline or something but you bail at the first sign of trouble it goes a tick or two against you and you get out.

I’m not going to discuss this in detail because I don’t do it, although i have a fairly good idea of the whole process but points i want to tell dimers is that I’ve seen no evidence of scalpers getting an edge by tick charts (s/r levels macd crossing up/down, ma’s, divergence this that), that’s a lie as far as I’m concerned. Best proof is to post live trade when they happen no one can argue with that but cant do that in scalping because there’s no time but those who claimed to scalp using charts i asked them some questions and from their answers i was more or less sure they’re not profitable then i asked if they could record 15 mins of trading which i could watch and they always came up with excuses which confirmed my suspicions.

If you are interested in scalping then I suggest you read an interview of Paul Rotter the worlds best known day trader and you will see even he says way to do it is to learn to read the order book.

hope anyone interested finds this info useful, remember to succeed you need a proven methodology something if applied diligently over time has a positive expectancy so don’t waste your time with things that don’t work coz trading is hard enough as it is.

But it is true scalping is the way you can make the most money in the least time …. if you can do it that is.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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Never understood or met any scalpers.

Deal Subedar Deal Subedar
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If you want to make money in trading and investing here’s what you need to do

1)study & think for yourself ….. then next.
2)study & think for yourself again and now here’s the most important step ….. listen carefully …..
3)study and think for yourself some more.

ANYONE CAN DO IT, THIS IS MY PROMISE TO DIMERS you just need to put in the effort

Reading newspapers and magazines looking for what to buy / tips is a complete waste of time so don’t bother. One of the key factors to understand is the majority is mostly wrong and always wrong at turning points. The majority read newspapers and magazines and watch CNBC so if they’re wrong and we know this from statistics (which I will prove later) then the newspapers and magazines and TV channel experts they listen to must also be wrong isn’t it? I mean it stands to reason na. If you do the same thing losers do the result you will get is the one losers get which is losses.

In my case most of my trades have come from my own analysis and its rarely ever in line with what the experts say, you can read through the thread and check …

Of course you just cant blindly do the opposite of what the majority does because then you’ll lose again, you have to have your reasons for something and then if you see the experts are taking the opposite position you will have greater incentive to believe your reasoning is right.

Here a quote I tried out and it worked

“In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time — none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren(Buffett) reads — at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out" – Charlie Munger

But you have to think for yourself for eg although I’ve taken charlie munger’s advice above he also says he’s not moving a single dollar of his 49 billion into gold because he see’s the gold run over, my analysis does not have this conclusion so I must do what I think correct, if i just follow him blindly i will never learn. So this is what i mean by think for yourself, also dont worry about making mistakes initially that has to happen thats an integral part of the process, in fact if you dont make mistakes initially then something is wrong and you’re probably having a lucky streak

Also please read the below article it has some very interesting findings they observed 66400 brokerage accounts over a 7 year period and found 82% of day traders are losers but they deny it and feign to be profitable, furthermore longer term investors/traders (positional traders like what i do) were a whopping 50% more profitable than day traders with just 2% turnover.

furthermore

– The average winning trader did in fact repeat as a winner, netting $251 a day after transaction costs. But overall, things were so bad that 82% of all the traders lost money, for an average loss of $45 a day.
– That’s right: Out of 925,000 traders in the study, about 750,000 of them were losers. And assuming 250 trading days a year, each trader lost roughly $11,250 a year for a total loss of about $8.4 billion annually.
– On the other hand, the 175,000 repeat winners each made an estimated $62,750 a year after transaction costs, for a total annual gain by the winners of roughly $11 billion. So even the small number of the top-performing traders made only $62,750 a year for all their risk-taking.

so there you have it most traders lose, the vast majority of day traders lose and as per other sources the two groups which suffer the most losses are day traders and options traders. So by just cutting out day trading and options trading you already improve your chances of success, cut out short term trading and you further improve your chances of success. Personally my advice is if you’re starting out start out with long to mid term positional trading.

I have already shown the power of positional trading in the thread, its lower on stress levels than short term and day trading and reasonably profitable. for eg one of the trades I’m looking at in future is to short the US bond market and this trade will run for years, low stress, low transaction costs, huge reward to risk, more free time, the most important thing is to do your own analysis and totally convince yourself even after looking at all contrary evidence your reasoning stands its ground then you will have the courage to make public live trade because you’ve considered all other possibilities also you will have enough free time to pursue your hobbies or interests as the trade runs.

Analyst Analyst
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Kitne din se soch ke baitha tha Thumsup bhai ko karma dena hai thumsup bhai ko karma dena hai
lekin har baar dhyaan se he nikal jaata tha finally de diya bhai +9 for you https://cdn1.desidime.com/assets/textile-editor/icon_biggrin.gif

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