Discussion on Economy, Finance, Money, Investments etc

We used to be the biggest importer of gold in the world but china just surpassed us as the worlds largest importer (and producer) of gold, the Chinese may be shrewd, manipulative, untrustworthy etc etc but they are definitely not fools, which can clearly be seen from the way they’ve gone from the bottom of the ladder in 1979 to number two on the ladder as the worlds second largest economy today.

If they’re buying gold (and record tonnes of it) there’s a good reason for that. In jan their imports was 54MT, feb was 97MT, march they imported a whopping 223.5MT that’s a massive amount in fact that’s more than the total gold holding of 20 countries and this is just one months gold import for China. No idea how much they imported in April after the crash in gold.

Personally I don’t think the bull market in gold has ended, I’ve given many reasons in several threads but very difficult to speculate if its bottomed out already or if it will drop lower, there’s no way to make an educated guess but I’m of the opinion its going to easily surpass the recent highs, as I’ve said before first target is $2500, if and when it reaches it i will evaluate for a second possible target.

bhai kuch time nhi kuch nhi..???

2500 in 1yr, 2yr,,,,10 yr….ya???

rajdesidime wrote:

bhai kuch time nhi kuch nhi..???

2500 in 1yr, 2yr,,,,10 yr….ya???

kab hoga you’re asking the wrong person woh to sirf CNBC / Zee business wale batta sakte hai otherwise you can check newspaper.

but my guess is by end 2015 (this is just a guess don’t hold me to it) typically commodity bull markets last 15-18 years, the gold bull market began around 2002/2003 so given past trends we’re only mid way through or two thirds though it, also typically parabolic rises are seen in the last third of commodity bull markets and that’s when it goes into the bubble stage.

bhai i dnt believe any market guru…i started seeing Awwaz/ zee business frm 2005…gt intsted in market & hence economics….i hav learned nt to believe any of stock gurus….

rajdesidime wrote:

I hav learned nt to believe any of stock gurus….

+1..My father Also Tells Me The Same ….He Says That They Are Paid To Recommend The Respective Stocks….

PS : I Don’t Know Much About All This…

Utsav wrote:

rajdesidime wrote:

I hav learned nt to believe any of stock gurus….

+1..My father Also Tells Me The Same ….He Says That They Are Paid To Recommend The Respective Stocks….

PS : I Don’t Know Much About All This…

besides i hav followed their prediction long term….all failed…

& i jst hate technical analyst….fundamental gurus still better..

rajdesidime wrote:

bhai i dnt believe any market guru…i started seeing Awwaz/ zee business frm 2005…gt intsted in market & hence economics….i hav learned nt to believe any of stock gurus….

wise decision …….. I was just joking yare of course they can’t tell us when, if they could would they be on TV?

If I could I happily would have told but I can’t frankly I have no idea when other than the brief timeline i gave you above and that i got from studying commodity cycles, but it really doesn’t mean much its not necessary this time the cycle has to conform to the past ones.

What about you, what is your view on gold? will it go up? go down and stay down? any maybe price targets?

bhai ek bar thik se gir jaye arnd 20 tak fir toh safe hojayega lena….

bt then again for aam admi its difficult to fish at bottom ….so every dip thoda lena thik lgta hai mujhe…

acha analysis hai ..

One thing dimers may find useful and something I personally use to attempt to time the market is sentiment indicators. Even if analysis is right it doesn’t mean much without timing for eg in 2000 when it was plain to see things were grossly overvalued by looking at company’s balance sheet but yet the market rallied strongly another 40% before finally people came to their senses and valuations were realised by the public and the market dropped by 70%.

So sentiment is really important, and I find sentiment indicators quite useful in this respect, most sentiment indicators work on contrary opinion which means as they get more bullish we’re somewhere near a top, as people get more bearish we’re somewhere near a bottom.

one of the sentiment indicators has given a sell signal but its only one, this one of course is released bi annually (once in six months) this time its given a record reading highest of past 20 years you can read it here

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052…

However we can not rely only on this, i check others on a weekly basis and so far they are within prescribed limits although near quite bullish but not yet given a sell signal. I also check technical when i believe we have a big market move ahead when i find a confluence of these indicators flashing a signal i begin looking at technical to time an entry. But so far as i said only one indicaotr has given a sell signal we need to wait and check weekly sentiment indicators and when they flash sell signal next we need to go to TA.

hope dimers can use this info for their own analysis whatever be their methods

thumsup wrote:

It appears as far as money making opportunities are concerned as per my analysis copper will rally soon so this could be the next possible trade, already some Brokers and so called financial experts have given sell calls.

So long copper could be a possible next trade

Current price of copper on MCX is Rs389/- (June contract)

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

No point following the economy unless we can identify mispricings and hopefully profit from it

copper gone up (I’m in and in small profit) current Rs409/- i think it should rally, but don’t know yet if it will be a big rally or a short pop.

Recession of 2008 started in Dec2007 and ended in Jun2009 so basically it lasted for one and a half years, now question is what happened for it to end in Jun2009? Did economic activity pick up? Well I don’t think so, personally I believe it “officially” ended because the markets started rising, does that mean economic activity picked up? Well not so imho …. in this case US growth is less than what it was before the crash but the markets today are higher than what they were before the crash, same for unemployment, the market started rising because the Fed started monetizing as can be seen from the chart I attached below.

Has economic activity picked up ….. well you decide.

can any dimer please tell me why these charts are so small? such a problem re I spend more time trying to get the chart to show correctly than writing the post? If I chose size 640 it come like this if i chose default size (which is large) it doesn’t even show

Moderatorji is there any timeframe for when will you been starting dd’s own image server

Japanese yen trade update:
=====

Following from where i left off early currently trade is bobbing up and down, its currently in 150pips profit but if it breaks the last low at 300 pips i will add another position, already sell stop order is in place. It had already gone to 300 pips profit but always better to add positions after a pull back when price breaks the last pivot high/low

A word about TA, here i have used a trendline ordinarily the trendline really means nothing by itself however in this case we have a fundamental reason why the jpy should strengthen so we can use the trendline to fine tune our entry and add to positions. For trendlines as a personal rule i use 3 successive closes above/below trendlines to tell me if the trendline has been violated.

Need to be patient this could takes many weeks to play out

France slips into recession

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/french...

imho the entire EU is still healthier than USA

gold silently slips below $1400. could go down below 26k today in india too..:-?

marketdimer wrote:

gold silently slips below $1400. could go down below 26k today in india too..:-?

Thx. Do you have any (rough/approx) level at how low it might go?

follow up to an old post

http://www.desidime.com/forums/dost-and-dimes/t…

Sunpharma achieved first target move stop to BE + profit

Glenmark almost touching first target move stop to BE+ profit

Vakarangee hasn’nt moved much it may have completed wave 5 on dailies even on the weeklies it may have completed wave 3 so correction is expected you can re-enter at 60 levels depending on the nifty at that time.

ambica cotton not moved much but is still a hold should atleast go to Rs255/-

My way of doing it is I first look at fundamentals if I’m convinced the stock will move then i look at technical s , I use elliott wave theory for stocks, wave 3 is usually the biggest move and the one most preferred by ellioticians but way I look at it is only two waves are in place so there’s still a chance of an alternate wave count playing out. I personally prefer wave 5 although the move is smaller than wave 3 simply because 1-4 are already in place so there’s a lower chance of an alternate wave count.

These are all secondary or maybe tertiary considerations, trading EW by itself will make you broke faster than you can imagine for me fundamentals are the most important piece of the puzzle

Word on gold, if it breaks the last recent low $1321 next stop will be around $1150~$1190 this is a critical level to watch, if and when it reaches this and breaks below it then there’s a problem and it could accelerate lower, because then companies will begin suspending their operations and many will go bankrupt

If it doesn’t break it, it could recover from there. This is just an educated guess I’m not betting my money on it. However if I do see the bottom convincingly I’ll make a post about it, but so far no real idea this $1150ish is just an educated guess based on experience.

However for long term players of physical metal no real reason to worry my long term first target is $2500 and thats just my first target

Tushar Chande
____________

Interview with one of the few Indians who has made major contributions to the field of Technical Analysis, and is considered an internationally renowned authority on Technical Trading, started from humble beginnings in India went to IIT then spent many years in US and now based out of Switzerland. Written two book on trading, one being “Beyond Technical Analysis” which I’ve read and it has some good insights, I have not read the other one (published in 1994) but its supposed to be good too.

Talks about his background, about technical trading, his development as a trader and what it takes to succeed, I found it quite useful.

http://www.michaelcovel.com/tag/tushar-c…e/

edit: really great interview he talks about ways to quantify if markets are trending or not

thumsup wrote:

thumsup wrote:

It appears as far as money making opportunities are concerned as per my analysis copper will rally soon so this could be the next possible trade, already some Brokers and so called financial experts have given sell calls.

So long copper could be a possible next trade

Current price of copper on MCX is Rs389/- (June contract)

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-reco…

No point following the economy unless we can identify mispricings and hopefully profit from it

copper gone up (I’m in and in small profit) current Rs409/- i think it should rally, but don’t know yet if it will be a big rally or a short pop.

Just in case anyone is following Copper now Rs413/- take partial profits to reduce your risk, dont move stop yet you culd get whipsawed out.

So far I don’t see anything which will change my view of the macros I already discussed ie Japan, USA, Gold/silver, Finance etc etc …

Just received this: If you’re interested in trading for a fund zerodha has a new initiative

“We are on the verge of announcing a tie-up with a few international trading firms and hedge funds, who would be using the Zerodha 60-Day Challenge as a screener to hire potential full-time professional traders. If you can display trading skills and are looking to work at such firms, we will help you connect with our new initiative “Zerodha Podium.” If you haven’t started the challenge yet, click here to know more, get started and trade smart"

I have no idea about this challenge and largely ignore them all except for the Varengold Bank trading challenge also don’t want to advertise any broker or anything but I’m just posting from the perspective that dimers who may be interested in entering managed accounts could find this info useful. Also please remember the net return you show on your accounts is irrelevant from a professional point of view what matters more is the risk adjusted return. There are many measures for this like the sharpe ratio (which is flawed imho) but the basic idea is to maintain minimal drawdown.

Japanese yen trendline conclusively broken, hope this helps illustrate the use of trendlines in TA, by itself it means nothing but if you have a reason for it to be violated then it is helpful. As we can see form the chart the long term trendline on the dailies has been violated.

Another tool I’ve used is the bollinger band, when the bands constrict we could expect a big move in either direction, we need to watch for the price to breakout from the bands and if both bands begin diverging then we can expect a runner (price to run along one of the bands)

Trade had touched 500 ticks in profit (retraced a bit now) so trading just one standard contract that’s USD5000/- if you are richer you could trade more contracts (but I’m not) granted you can’t make as much money as daytraders but still its a stress free minimum analysis way of trading. Just about 10 mins a week is all you need to monitor the trade.

Also point worthy of noting is this trade is against the mighty Bank Of Japan, so need to be careful, good time to move stops so whatever happens we’re profitable on this trade.

I have already written earlier as far as I’m concerned Japan’s cycle of 23 years of debt collection is nearing its end they will probably default even before USA does, they govt debt to GDP is 240% and gross debt to GDP is almost 600% !! There are many other reasons but I honestly can’t see a bright future for Japan, they could easily default within the next 5 years, being the worlds second largest economy there’s going to be a massive drag on the world economy. In the meanwhile coz of Abenomics the nikkei could and probably will go higher but they’re racing towards a cliff no matter what the experts say I can’t see any other possibility.

Next what will happen is as the Japanese public stop buying Govt bonds the, the Japoo govt will be forced to raise interest rates on the bonds to attract foreigners to buy them, this is when the trouble will probably begin, coz they can not afford to pay higher interest rates to their bond holders and to make a long story short the bond market will collapse.

Anything is possible and I’m not an expert but so far personally this is what I see happening.

Sbi Lt And Japan

Nightmare For India

thumsup wrote:

Just received this: If you’re interested in trading for a fund zerodha has a new initiative

“We are on the verge of announcing a tie-up with a few international trading firms and hedge funds, who would be using the Zerodha 60-Day Challenge as a screener to hire potential full-time professional traders. If you can display trading skills and are looking to work at such firms, we will help you connect with our new initiative “Zerodha Podium.” If you haven’t started the challenge yet, click here to know more, get started and trade smart"

I have no idea about this challenge and largely ignore them all except for the Varengold Bank trading challenge also don’t want to advertise any broker or anything but I’m just posting from the perspective that dimers who may be interested in entering managed accounts could find this info useful. Also please remember the net return you show on your accounts is irrelevant from a professional point of view what matters more is the risk adjusted return. There are many measures for this like the sharpe ratio (which is flawed imho) but the basic idea is to maintain minimal drawdown.

Do we have to be a customer for it?

amitinmumbai wrote:

thumsup wrote:

Just received this: If you’re interested in trading for a fund zerodha has a new initiative

“We are on the verge of announcing a tie-up with a few international trading firms and hedge funds, who would be using the Zerodha 60-Day Challenge as a screener to hire potential full-time professional traders. If you can display trading skills and are looking to work at such firms, we will help you connect with our new initiative “Zerodha Podium.” If you haven’t started the challenge yet, click here to know more, get started and trade smart"

I have no idea about this challenge and largely ignore them all except for the Varengold Bank trading challenge also don’t want to advertise any broker or anything but I’m just posting from the perspective that dimers who may be interested in entering managed accounts could find this info useful. Also please remember the net return you show on your accounts is irrelevant from a professional point of view what matters more is the risk adjusted return. There are many measures for this like the sharpe ratio (which is flawed imho) but the basic idea is to maintain minimal drawdown.

Do we have to be a customer for it?

Yes

Become Customer Join Challenge And Make Good Profit In Your Account You Can Be Selected In Hedge Fund Or Any Other company

Remember Good Profit Means Better Then Others

haha I have no interest in being an employee . I just want my name to be published and advertised so I can get some good HNIs who are willing to put money for me..

Well I don’t have much idea about the zerodha one but wolf bhai will be able to give details on that

coming to the Varengold one, actually frankly speaking I’m not in the “competion scene” these day, but as far as i remember you didn’t need any money to enter, it was a paper trading type of contest. Its more suited for short term traders, it was a 3 month contest (atleast used to be) and back in 2005ish (I dont remember exact year) but the trader who won it was a German Lady that too working full time, she made 80% with almost ZERO drawdown (without losing money) remarkable achievement imho.

After you win they give you 50k or 100k (I don’t remmeber) of live money to trade on a salary (or profit sharng basis … don’t remember that either) you can just check it out on the net if you’re interested.

Thanks I checked their website couldn’t get much info there hence raised a query here.

amitinmumbai wrote:

Thanks I checked their website couldn’t get much info there hence raised a query here.

you’re welcome as I said this was a long time ago but you can find some more details here,

Winner got a manged account with usd150k around 75lakhs (notice his risk adjusted return its mind boggling)

First runner up got manged account with usd100k around 50lakhs

Second runner up got managed account with usd100k around 25lakhs

imho its an outstanding opportunity for short term traders

think you could get more info here -→ http://www.trading-challenge.com/en/inde…ml

edt:correction to my earlier post Japan is now the third largest economy not the second anymore, China is number two its steaming ahead full throttle

60 days challenge is return brokerage on all positive trades. suppose someone start with 10k today and has 11k afer 60 days then he’s eligible for all positive trade brokerage return. no return on negative balance at end of 60 days or for those who are in positive but had some trades in losses in between.