IPOs & Stock market - Discussion Thread

Actually I asked the person, how does he pick good stocks from the ocean of many. He replied this.
DISCLAIMER: I have made some big mistakes in small and micro caps… i was foolish enough on not selling at the first trouble.

IN My experience,
Great Multi Baggers breaks out as below categories,

1. First and foremost is the Great macro economic suprises.
Ex : HEG spurted after chinese chemical factories shut down news
India Bulls after Demonitization.
IOL CP after COVID-19

2. if you know some thing about charts [ this is the eaisest way to find 10 and 20x’s ]
if a company is trading range bound for X years and suddenly brokes out to its all time high, then that will end up being 10X from there.
for ex : if a company trades between 100-150 for 3 years and brokes out to 200 in about a week time. then there is some thing there.
BCG when it crossed 7.5 wanted to buy but i couldnt.

i am trying to write a python algorithm to finds this data based on EOD data.

3. Companies that are coming out of debt.
you will find companies report growth year after year without any increase in price.
This is generally due to the bad balance sheet.
Once they reduce the debt, wait for step 2 and then enter.

4. Need a Killer instinct.

5. All the 10 and 20 and 30X started when there market capitizalition was about 100 to 1000 Crores.
i have never heard of MID CAP Company becoming a 10X in 1-2 years.
So, you should start from here.

6. Sudden spurt of ROIC, ROCE will produce multi baggers.
this comes from high margin products.

7. Multibaggers go down 50% before they go up 20times.
this is due to the volume being less. the reason what ever convinced you to buy at first, if that still holds true then you should be holding it.

8. Never buy a Multibagger of the past hoping to have a reply of the past.
90% of the time it will not happen. it might gain but it certainly wont be a multibagger like it happened in the past.

9. Every 4 to 6 economy resets for a brief period of time.
in other words, there will be correction to recession to depression every 4 to 6 years.
New Mutlibagger will emerge out of them and during the first 18 months of the recovery you will see companies running up on drugs.

10. Multibaggers are different from compounders dont confuse…
HEG was a multibagger and bajaj finance is a compounder..
why this is being said, most dont sell when they had too.

11. Most of the multibagger’s happens to be forming based on the output of the single product or license or intelligence patent that belongs to the organization.
which is why selling is important, before competitors figure it out.

this is what i can think at the moment, will add when more things strikes my mind.

@SHARKTANK @garamjalebi @malikcool @_One_Miller_ @saucap @P_A_N_K_A_J @BubbleBoyChickenLittle
Bhaion. Apologies for the tag. Deleted

Check chat @bikidas2060

In my honest opinion, let’s keep this thread clean. It was fun while it lasted. But, let’s leave this page alone. 🙂

Acha in investing.com, nifty 50 shows volume. Nifty50 is not a tradable entity. Is it an aggregate volume?
Does that volume have any significance?
@malikcool @BubbleBoyChickenLittle @garamjalebi @Awake

This is why I say banknifty is probably the worst burner of money for newbies. Lot size is mere 20. But check the violent movement it has up its sleeve.

need some help guys , what is wrong in this portfolio,

Volatility aaj dekhi maine zindagi mein🤣🤣🤣 kuch bhi order place karo hit ho ja raha 🤣🤣

Lagta hai kal huge gap down hoga

@marketdimer @BubbleBoyChickenLittle @malikcool @bikidas2060

Chalo bhai logo… good night.

1 big decision on interest on loans deferring by banks will be announced today. that should drift market on any side. also gap of 9600 is filled so we are at breakout zone. ab baith ke dekhte hain kya hota hai.

@BubbleBoyChickenLittle @xuseronline @bikidas2060 Bhai sahab aaj garam jalebi ne Aag Laga di. Ek party or Tyar hai. Khoob mota profit lapeta hai Garam jalebi ne Infratel mai aaj. Saare retailers ko jalebi ki tarah kha liya garam jalebi ne. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

didn’t do anything today. will wait for 9350 on nifty and 19600 on bank nifty for next step. those who thinking to go long or went long, this trap was for you.

Deleted

metals, psu, certain psu banks and pvt banks, auto and auto ancillary could be next market performer even if markets keep falling.

here is an example – in 2001 to 2002, markets kept falling but gradually infra and reality stocks, stocks related to building and infra started to rise. while markets fell 40%-60%, these rose 300 to 400 times (not 300%-400% but times)!

in 2008, everything fell but infra and reality, psu and psu banks were worst affected (rose too much too soon), and new entries like consumer durable, fmgc, pharma, IT and pvt banks started to rise. these rose as much as 150 times to 200 times when market fell 60%-70%! again it’s times means 1 rupee stock went to become 150 to 200!

this time certain pvt banks, nbfcs and financials going down. there is still not much consolidation but some psu, metals and auto ancillary have run too much and should keep going higher. consolidation in new sectors starts when 1st wave of fall begins which is near. so this is the time to keep eyes open and stay alert. life time opportunity is round the corner. more dumb money comes, merrier it will be.

one should tread cautiously in sectors where last run was made specially consumer durables, pharma, IT and pvt, some psu banks. if you see, currently these stocks are sold to gullible traders and investors who learnt tovmake quick money overnight.

what current buyers are not understanding is simple maths which will haunt them in coming days. suppose you buy a xyz stock and it goes up 40%, you make 140 from 100. now it requires to go down 28.5% to go back to 100. if it again drops by 40%, theoritacally you didn’t lose anything but mathematically you have lost 16% as stock is now at 84 rs. now to go back to 100 again you’ll require another 20% high on the stock to come to breakeven.

in this period of ups and downs, your stock earns daily or lose daily. things are bright and sunny when it only goes up but if it starts to go down, it creates same mathematical ability to fall much quicker than it rose up. and here you’ll either stick with a loss maker stock or sell on losses. that’s why repeateditly saying to book whatever profits you have and sit back for further fall.

a fall will come and no money from the usa to mutual funds to day traders to overnight investors can stop. markets needs an excuse and not timing to give unpleasent surprises on both side. no one saw plane crashing world trade center, no one saw satyam’s raju doing accounting scams under the sebi nose, no one saw indira gandhi getting killed, no one saw harshad mehta doing badla trades, no one saw 200s of dot com companies at a same address in hyderabad or kolkata, no one saw coronavirus. it needs excuse. and currently future prospects doesn’t reflects in today’s price. the coming fall will be much massive then the current one because in first fall experts are hurt and in 2nd, 3rd fall experts hurts. stay alert, don’t rejoice your small profits. your small profits are baits by bigger shark. baaaki jo hoga wo to hoga hi. rab rakha.

Franklin ultra short term & low duration fund who had vodafon debt & seggregated vodafon with 0 amount.

Now franklin have received partial payment & they will send 7.5% to all unit holder of seggregated folio.

If they will receive full payment next month from vodafon, it will be surprised party for unit holders.

@rahulkothu @drjpatwa check bank account. just received amount. kuch nahi se kuch sahi. regreting not putting more amount after default.

holding indigo @ 1150, its down by 10%. good to hold or exit. please advice

*advice subject to market risk i know

@bikidas2060 @marketdimer

Words are mere bubbles of water; deeds are drops of gold. neki kar, dariya mein daal.

anyways, another day to trap retails, even diis went short yesterday aise mein ye 2% kahan tikta! as suggested, stay cautious, don’t get excited with small ups and downs. keep stop losses if daring karne ka mood hai to. and stay away from kachra stocks.

to get below 8k, markets needs either one from IT, telecom, fmcg or pharma sector to go down with banks. otherwise we will stay in zone of 9k to 10k for time being. so keep your startegy accordingly keeping eye on these 4 sectors. baaki bhaav bhagwan che.

200 point upar, 300 point neeche fir 100 point upar. china attacking on border is reason given waise dow future also came down drastically without any china attack. ye upar neeche mein kitne pis gaye honge, kitne fas gaye honge!

this china issue can give good short term opportunity in going long, in case markets falls further. also there is agr issue hearing romorrow, moratorium interest issue also coming on friday, thursday is weekly expiry, the us markets looks fragile too. buy at dips if markets slides down heavily.

Nil batta Sannata

After today’s trading

One trade took profit of all other trades

Any reason for the past 2-3 days rally?

covered bank nifty call and bought 4 puts of 8000 august expiry at 60 from profits, let’s see how it goes out. kuch jayega nahi jeb se, 2 mahine ka downside khelne mil jayega. 2200 ke 22000 se jyada ban gaye. jab tak market stable nahi hote inhi main time paas ho raha hai.

1400 points upmove without volumes, speaks volumes about this “rally”!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/20...

to the experts i have 300 shares of morephen at price of 33.20 , what should i do now sell it or hold it for long to gain profit , current price is 28.20.. Feeling low right now

market’s valuation became overvalued thanks to high p/e, low profitable stocks going up in recent days. it is much expensive than nifty was at all time high. i remember @Dastro asking why sudden bullish view at 8800-8900 levels, but didn’t knew small and microcap will lead this rally, sold them early and shifted to large caps before selling full portfolio (hence biased view so one should take own calls accordingly), but large cap stayed in a range and small, micro rallied too much too quick. now either large caps have to perform or all went down is waiting to come.